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BVP had five at LSU, Carter with five against St. Francis (aided by a technical) and four against Marshall. Back to Top Andrew Ruck General User Member Since: 12/22/2004 Location: Columbus, OH Post Count: 4,856 Status: Offline     RE: Very interesting team stat coming out of non-conference    Posted: 12/21/2021 2:34:06 PM  It is impressive to play solid defense with lots of forced turnovers while being one of the lightest fouling teams in the country. Andrew Ruck B.B.A. 2003 Back to Top mf279801 General User Member Since: 8/6/2010 Location: Newark, DE Post Count: 2,461 Status: Offline     RE: Very interesting team stat coming out of non-conference    Posted: 12/22/2021 8:39:20 AM  I don’t know enough about basketball to be sure, but that seems like something with a high “luck” component…is that the kind of stat that is likely to revert to the mean over the course of a season? Back to Top Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame General User Member Since: 7/30/2010 Post Count: 3,458 Status: Offline     RE: Very interesting team stat coming out of non-conference    Posted: 12/22/2021 9:21:31 AM  mf279801 wrote: I don’t know enough about basketball to be sure, but that seems like something with a high “luck” component…is that the kind of stat that is likely to revert to the mean over the course of a season? I sort of vaguely recall and analytics study on the NBA that suggested that at least at the individual player level this wasn't luck. The conclusion reached was that not fouling was a skill that certain players sustained over very large samples. I think Loul Deng was the prime example of this, in that he played plus defense, guarded multiple positions, and averaged a low number of personal fouls across his career. At the team level, I'd venture to guess that the biggest factor is that we haven't been behind in the final 90 seconds of a game much, and when we have been, we were very behind. You remove a lot of fouls from the denominator by not handing out 3-4 fouls in the final minute of losses. Last Edited: 12/22/2021 9:22:57 AM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame Back to Top OUVan General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Bethesda, MD Post Count: 5,580 Status: Offline     RE: Very interesting team stat coming out of non-conference    Posted: 12/22/2021 10:02:16 AM  Another interesting stat - 79.5 FT%, good for 11th in the country. We have not improved on our FT defense however - 81.0% (356th as usual). Back to Top The Optimist General User Member Since: 3/16/2007 Location: CLE Post Count: 5,561 Status: Offline     RE: Very interesting team stat coming out of non-conference    Posted: 12/22/2021 11:09:23 AM  Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote: mf279801 wrote: I don’t know enough about basketball to be sure, but that seems like something with a high “luck” component…is that the kind of stat that is likely to revert to the mean over the course of a season? I sort of vaguely recall and analytics study on the NBA that suggested that at least at the individual player level this wasn't luck. The conclusion reached was that not fouling was a skill that certain players sustained over very large samples. I think Loul Deng was the prime example of this, in that he played plus defense, guarded multiple positions, and averaged a low number of personal fouls across his career. At the team level, I'd venture to guess that the biggest factor is that we haven't been behind in the final 90 seconds of a game much, and when we have been, we were very behind. You remove a lot of fouls from the denominator by not handing out 3-4 fouls in the final minute of losses. That is an interesting point about the final 90 seconds of the game. It might be worthwhile to have an adjusted calculation that excludes the final 90 seconds of a game. That said, I also recall reading that it isn't "luck" in a lot of players. Just like good players get to the foul line more, good defensive teams often foul less. Sample size matters. Right now, I think we ARE a very good defensive team but I'll be able to say that with much more confidence after the 1st half of MAC play. I've seen crazier things happen. Back to Top mf279801 General User Member Since: 8/6/2010 Location: Newark, DE Post Count: 2,461 Status: Offline     RE: Very interesting team stat coming out of non-conference    Posted: 12/22/2021 12:18:25 PM  @BLSS: neat, thanks for the insight! Back to Top Deciduous Forest Cat General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Ohio Post Count: 4,371 Status: Offline     RE: Very interesting team stat coming out of non-conference    Posted: 12/22/2021 1:38:42 PM  We seem capable of playing very good defense for long stretches or even full games. Are we really a good defensive team though? St f,Concordia, and others seem to be torching us on the regular. Turnovers forced are good but teams are seemingly shooting very high percentages against us. Back to Top JSF General User Member Since: 1/29/2005 Location: Houston, TX Post Count: 6,420 Status: Offline     RE: Very interesting team stat coming out of non-conference    Posted: 12/22/2021 5:39:20 PM  Deciduous Forest Cat wrote: We seem capable of playing very good defense for long stretches or even full games. Are we really a good defensive team though? St f,Concordia, and others seem to be torching us on the regular. Turnovers forced are good but teams are seemingly shooting very high percentages against us. Analyzing defense is not easy. FG% may or may not be a helpful stat. Are we good at forcing the type of shots we want the other team to take? Are we forcing a lot of contested shots that are falling, or do we allow a lot of open looks? I don't shell out several thousands for Synergy, so I don't know those answers. So let's look at what I can find out. We're good at forcing turnovers, but opponents generally shoot a high percentage against us. In the aggregate, this is working for us; we're one of the better defensive efficency teams in the country. There's gonna be a games we don't win the turnover battle, though. On defense, 37% of shots taken against us are three pointers and 63% are two pointers. San Diego allows the fewest three point attempts (24%) and Syracuse the most (51%!). We're 131st, solidly above average. The question is, are opponents taking more shots inside the arc because that's a choice we've made or because we're bad at defending the two? 35% of total shots against are at the rim. 28% are jumpers. Generally, two point jumpers are what we want to see more of. We're not good at this; that 28% is 262nd nationally. Teams are making 45% of them (356th). We're decent at blocking shots at the rim (10%), but if we don't block the shot, it's probably going in (66%- not good). On the bright side, opponents are shooting 31% on unblocked three point attempts. I don't think these numbers answers the question of why we're seeing better success defending the three, although I think we've gotten unlucky with opponent two point jumpers. Even if we're allowing too many open looks, I expect that to regress to the mean. I also expect the unblocked shots at the rim to improve as we move into MAC play and don't have to deal with potential future NBA bigs. The part that worries me is transition defense. 23% of opponent shots are in transition, and they're making 54% of those. If we have a true weakness, there it is. "Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season. My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8 Back to Top The Optimist General User Member Since: 3/16/2007 Location: CLE Post Count: 5,561 Status: Offline     RE: Very interesting team stat coming out of non-conference    Posted: 12/22/2021 7:25:08 PM  JSF wrote: Deciduous Forest Cat wrote: We seem capable of playing very good defense for long stretches or even full games. Are we really a good defensive team though? St f,Concordia, and others seem to be torching us on the regular. Turnovers forced are good but teams are seemingly shooting very high percentages against us. Analyzing defense is not easy. FG% may or may not be a helpful stat. Are we good at forcing the type of shots we want the other team to take? Are we forcing a lot of contested shots that are falling, or do we allow a lot of open looks? I don't shell out several thousands for Synergy, so I don't know those answers. So let's look at what I can find out. We're good at forcing turnovers, but opponents generally shoot a high percentage against us. In the aggregate, this is working for us; we're one of the better defensive efficency teams in the country. There's gonna be a games we don't win the turnover battle, though. On defense, 37% of shots taken against us are three pointers and 63% are two pointers. San Diego allows the fewest three point attempts (24%) and Syracuse the most (51%!). We're 131st, solidly above average. The question is, are opponents taking more shots inside the arc because that's a choice we've made or because we're bad at defending the two? 35% of total shots against are at the rim. 28% are jumpers. Generally, two point jumpers are what we want to see more of. We're not good at this; that 28% is 262nd nationally. Teams are making 45% of them (356th). We're decent at blocking shots at the rim (10%), but if we don't block the shot, it's probably going in (66%- not good). On the bright side, opponents are shooting 31% on unblocked three point attempts. I don't think these numbers answers the question of why we're seeing better success defending the three, although I think we've gotten unlucky with opponent two point jumpers. Even if we're allowing too many open looks, I expect that to regress to the mean. I also expect the unblocked shots at the rim to improve as we move into MAC play and don't have to deal with potential future NBA bigs. The part that worries me is transition defense. 23% of opponent shots are in transition, and they're making 54% of those. If we have a true weakness, there it is. Great stuff; thanks for posting! A big part of the reason defense is so hard to analyze (not just in basketball, but all sports) is that positioning plays a crucial part in it (not that it isn't also extremely important on offense as well) Over the next decade as player tracking (think NFL next gen stats) becomes more mainstream more complex and accurate defensive metrics will come into play... Unfortunately, to get your hands on that data it's going to cost you... I've seen crazier things happen. Back to Top Eagle66 General User Member Since: 3/13/2005 Post Count: 1,329 Status: Offline     RE: Very interesting team stat coming out of non-conference    Posted: 12/23/2021 10:55:15 AM  Bart Torvik ranks Ohio at #70 overall (and #1 in the MAC) using their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Ohio&year=2022 Back to Top Showing Replies:   1 - 11  of 11 Posts Jump to Page:   1 View Other 'Ohio Basketball' Topics                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               WHO'S ONLINE There are 255 Active Visitors on BobcatAttack.com 255 Guests 0 Registered Users There are no other users looking at this page.

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