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Topic:  Preseason poll vs reality

Topic:  Preseason poll vs reality
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Pataskala
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Member Since: 7/8/2010
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  Message Not Read  Preseason poll vs reality
   Posted: 3/7/2020 6:30:49 PM 
Here's the preseason MAC coaches poll with each team's actual finish in parenthesis:

East
1. Bowling Green (2nd)
2. Buffalo (3rd)
3. Kent State (4th)
4. Miami (6th)
5. Akron (1st)
6. Ohio (5th)

West
1. Toledo (3rd)
2. Northern Illinois (Tied for 1st, lost tiebreaker)
3. Ball State (Tied for 1st, won tiebreaker)
4. Central Michigan (4th)
5. Western Michigan (tied for 5th)
6. Eastern Michigan (tied for 5th)

They were 0-6 in the East, 2-4 in the West.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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Alan Swank
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Member Since: 12/11/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 7,072

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  Message Not Read  RE: Preseason poll vs reality
   Posted: 3/8/2020 9:34:09 AM 
Pataskala wrote:
Here's the preseason MAC coaches poll with each team's actual finish in parenthesis:

East
1. Bowling Green (2nd)
2. Buffalo (3rd)
3. Kent State (4th)
4. Miami (6th)
5. Akron (1st)
6. Ohio (5th)

West
1. Toledo (3rd)
2. Northern Illinois (Tied for 1st, lost tiebreaker)
3. Ball State (Tied for 1st, won tiebreaker)
4. Central Michigan (4th)
5. Western Michigan (tied for 5th)
6. Eastern Michigan (tied for 5th)

They were 0-6 in the East, 2-4 in the West.


Other than Akron, I would say they were pretty accurate relatively speaking.

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OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,158

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  Message Not Read  RE: Preseason poll vs reality
   Posted: 3/8/2020 12:06:43 PM 
Alan Swank wrote:
Pataskala wrote:
Here's the preseason MAC coaches poll with each team's actual finish in parenthesis:

East
1. Bowling Green (2nd)
2. Buffalo (3rd)
3. Kent State (4th)
4. Miami (6th)
5. Akron (1st)
6. Ohio (5th)

West
1. Toledo (3rd)
2. Northern Illinois (Tied for 1st, lost tiebreaker)
3. Ball State (Tied for 1st, won tiebreaker)
4. Central Michigan (4th)
5. Western Michigan (tied for 5th)
6. Eastern Michigan (tied for 5th)

They were 0-6 in the East, 2-4 in the West.


Other than Akron, I would say they were pretty accurate relatively speaking.



It seems nearly every year there's a school like Akron that greatly defies expectations. This is even more true, I think, in MAC football predictions, but is true often in basketball as well.


The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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Pataskala
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Member Since: 7/8/2010
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Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Preseason poll vs reality
   Posted: 3/8/2020 6:46:58 PM 
Alan Swank wrote:
Pataskala wrote:
Here's the preseason MAC coaches poll with each team's actual finish in parenthesis:

East
1. Bowling Green (2nd)
2. Buffalo (3rd)
3. Kent State (4th)
4. Miami (6th)
5. Akron (1st)
6. Ohio (5th)

West
1. Toledo (3rd)
2. Northern Illinois (Tied for 1st, lost tiebreaker)
3. Ball State (Tied for 1st, won tiebreaker)
4. Central Michigan (4th)
5. Western Michigan (tied for 5th)
6. Eastern Michigan (tied for 5th)

They were 0-6 in the East, 2-4 in the West.


Other than Akron, I would say they were pretty accurate relatively speaking.


I'd say they were pretty far off with Toledo as well. Not only did Toledo finish third instead of first, they were three games behind the co-leaders and didn't even have a .500 season in the MAC.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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GraffZ06
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Member Since: 1/5/2005
Location: Dayton, OH
Post Count: 1,995

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  Message Not Read  RE: Preseason poll vs reality
   Posted: 3/9/2020 8:08:13 AM 
It's probably more accurate to look at how many points teams got across the whole league rather than the two divisions, as if they were seeding for the MAC tournament. Based on pre-season polls they were expected to finish:

https://getsomemaction.com/news/2019/10/30/mac-announces-...

1) Bowling Green (69)
2) Toledo (69)
3) Buffalo (58)
4) N Illinois (52)
5) Ball St (51)
6) Kent St (43)
7) C Michigan (41)
8) Miami (37)
9) Akron (33)
10) W Michigan (23)
11) E Michigan (16)
12) Ohio (12)

Comparing that to reality, with the amount they missed by in parenthesis:
1) Akron (+8)
2) Bowling Green (-1)
3) Ball St (+2)
4) N Illinois (0)
5) Buffalo (-2)
6) Kent St (0)
7) Toledo (-5)
8) Ohio (+4)
9) C Michigan (-2)
10) W Michigan (0)
11) E Michigan (0)
12) Miami (-4)

I don't think missing by up to +/-2 is very big at all. So really they just missed: Akron +8 and Ohio +4 on the positive side, and Toledo -5 and Miami -4 on the negative side.
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CatsUp
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Member Since: 4/15/2019
Post Count: 753

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Preseason poll vs reality
   Posted: 3/9/2020 8:21:56 AM 
GraffZ06 wrote:
It's probably more accurate to look at how many points teams got across the whole league rather than the two divisions, as if they were seeding for the MAC tournament. Based on pre-season polls they were expected to finish:

https://getsomemaction.com/news/2019/10/30/mac-announces-...

1) Bowling Green (69)
2) Toledo (69)
3) Buffalo (58)
4) N Illinois (52)
5) Ball St (51)
6) Kent St (43)
7) C Michigan (41)
8) Miami (37)
9) Akron (33)
10) W Michigan (23)
11) E Michigan (16)
12) Ohio (12)

Comparing that to reality, with the amount they missed by in parenthesis:
1) Akron (+8)
2) Bowling Green (-1)
3) Ball St (+2)
4) N Illinois (0)
5) Buffalo (-2)
6) Kent St (0)
7) Toledo (-5)
8) Ohio (+4)
9) C Michigan (-2)
10) W Michigan (0)
11) E Michigan (0)
12) Miami (-4)

I don't think missing by up to +/-2 is very big at all. So really they just missed: Akron +8 and Ohio +4 on the positive side, and Toledo -5 and Miami -4 on the negative side.


Nice, concise analysis GraffZ. Well done!

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OU_Country
General User



Member Since: 12/6/2005
Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County
Post Count: 8,340

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Preseason poll vs reality
   Posted: 3/9/2020 9:44:06 AM 
GraffZ06 wrote:
It's probably more accurate to look at how many points teams got across the whole league rather than the two divisions, as if they were seeding for the MAC tournament. Based on pre-season polls they were expected to finish:

https://getsomemaction.com/news/2019/10/30/mac-announces-...

1) Bowling Green (69)
2) Toledo (69)
3) Buffalo (58)
4) N Illinois (52)
5) Ball St (51)
6) Kent St (43)
7) C Michigan (41)
8) Miami (37)
9) Akron (33)
10) W Michigan (23)
11) E Michigan (16)
12) Ohio (12)

Comparing that to reality, with the amount they missed by in parenthesis:
1) Akron (+8)
2) Bowling Green (-1)
3) Ball St (+2)
4) N Illinois (0)
5) Buffalo (-2)
6) Kent St (0)
7) Toledo (-5)
8) Ohio (+4)
9) C Michigan (-2)
10) W Michigan (0)
11) E Michigan (0)
12) Miami (-4)

I don't think missing by up to +/-2 is very big at all. So really they just missed: Akron +8 and Ohio +4 on the positive side, and Toledo -5 and Miami -4 on the negative side.


I like the analysis. I remember finding how Akron and Miami were picked to be a little interesting. Miami is the cellar dweller until the prove otherwise, and you had to think Akron was going to be better than them. Win the division better is surprising though.
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