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Topic: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Topic: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

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Kevin Finnegan
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Location: Rockton, IL
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Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/6/2019 11:35:18 AM

Conference prediction polls are nothing more than bulletin board fodder, I guess, but it seems like there would be much greater value in a preconference poll rather than a preseason poll for smaller conferences.

I'd be interested to see where OHIO would be selected by both sportswriters and other coaches after their surprising results from the early season games. How much change would there be? Where would OHIO be selected now? Still bottom of the East?

Recovering Journalist
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/6/2019 2:19:10 PM

The general MAC board is much more football-heavy but the handful of people opining about hoops on there are still not sold on Ohio at all. Time will tell if they're correct.

Victory
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/6/2019 5:56:51 PM

We got whipped pretty good in our three losses and while a MAC contender would not be expected to win all of those games we didn't put up much of a fight. Really, a MAC championship team should be pretty even with Utah.

I think what we have seen so far is very encouraging. I don't think that we would be last in a MAC poll right now. We would be ahead of WMU and, I'd say, Miami and Ball St. as well. But have we looked so much better than the other eight teams teams that we would have jumped over them. In some cases it is possible like with NIU and CMU but I don't know that OUr performance with respect to theirs in enough to change expectations. It is pretty similar overall. St. Bonaventure is the best team we have beaten and while winning on the road is great I doubt that they quite live up to their A10 #5 billing and I doubt that they would be a MAC contender. Iona may very well win the MAAC again but they would finish right near the bottom in the MAC. Maybe dead last.

If we CAN contend this year with a team this young and this many injuries right after a coaching change then the rest of the MAC should be scared about what is coming.

Recovering Journalist
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/6/2019 11:59:33 PM

Victory wrote:

We got whipped pretty good in our three losses and while a MAC contender would not be expected to win all of those games we didn't put up much of a fight. Really, a MAC championship team should be pretty even with Utah.

I think what we have seen so far is very encouraging. I don't think that we would be last in a MAC poll right now. We would be ahead of WMU and, I'd say, Miami and Ball St. as well. But have we looked so much better than the other eight teams teams that we would have jumped over them. In some cases it is possible like with NIU and CMU but I don't know that OUr performance with respect to theirs in enough to change expectations. It is pretty similar overall. St. Bonaventure is the best team we have beaten and while winning on the road is great I doubt that they quite live up to their A10 #5 billing and I doubt that they would be a MAC contender. Iona may very well win the MAAC again but they would finish right near the bottom in the MAC. Maybe dead last.

If we CAN contend this year with a team this young and this many injuries right after a coaching change then the rest of the MAC should be scared about what is coming.

This is a pretty spot on assessment. This team has done more than I ever hoped but it still hasn�t done much. I hope the best is yet to come.

Bobcat1996
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/7/2019 8:14:11 PM

Bank on nine wins before January and the conference play begins. End up winning half or 10 games in MAC play and Ohio has 20 wins.

Victory
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/8/2019 6:14:27 PM

NIU lost to UC-Davis yesterday and CMU took a not as bad loss to Valpo today. It is easier to think we might be 7th in a poll now. There isn't a great team in the MAC and it is deep for a mid-major (as usual) so there shouldn't be a really huge perceived gap between us and whoever you think might be #1. That would probably be BG, Toledo, Kent, or maybe Akron. Buffalo has not really played much better than Ohio this year but they are up 15 on unbeaten DePaul right now.

colobobcat66
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/9/2019 4:35:13 PM

Sagarin has Ohio 6th in MAC right now and 140 overall. A little better than at start of the season. Looks a lot better now if injuries don�t completely derail us.

Victory
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/9/2019 5:47:39 PM

Yeah, I would expect to be 6, 7, or 8 in a revote right now. I don't think we would get many ballots in the top 5 at all. We are one of the very youngest teams in D1 and have suffered much more than a fair share of injuries. There is potential to get up to the level of the 5 expected contenders at the moment.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/9/2019 6:34:21 PM

Ohio is eighth in the KenPom ratings. As noted, most rankings systems have almost all of the MAC from 80-180. The exceptions are Miami and Western Michigan at the bottom. So there's not much difference from one MAC team to another.

Victory
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/9/2019 7:12:03 PM

Massey computer composite is a 28 computer system average through Sunday:

Kent 89
Buffalo 91
Toledo 93
Bowling Green 101
Akron 102
Ohio 130
EMU 146
Ball St. 149
CMU 156
NIU 162
Miami 219
WMU 262

5 contenders, 5 hopefuls, and 2 not so hopefuls.
https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cb2020&sub=12526

bobcatsquared
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/9/2019 7:23:31 PM

How does Hawkins keep his job at WMU all these years?

BillyTheCat
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Member Since: 10/6/2012
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/10/2019 5:41:23 AM

Do we get banners for the catwalk, or trophies for these ratings? Otherwise, just win.

Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
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RE: Preseason polls vs. Preconference polls

Posted: 12/10/2019 6:04:30 PM

I could easily make a trophy if that somehow matters. But the point is we spend a lot of time arguing about where we stand and who is going to win and things like that. A computer system designed to pick future games is better at it than nearly every fan. Some other systems rank by strength of record or have some other objective. But the relevance is not in a trophy but in the track record of actual data.

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