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Topic: Advanced Stats

Topic: Advanced Stats

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Andrew Ruck
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Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 4,965

Status: Offline

Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/31/2024 7:40:37 PM

We've discussed in previous seasons some of the advanced stats available. The one I have found most often reflects what the eye test says for me is BPM at BasketballReference.com. It calculates the points per 100 possessions a player contributes above a league average player. It is similar to WAR (wins above replacement) in baseball meant to boil the all around game into 1 number. It has an offensive component and defensive component. Here is how the Bobcats shake out:

A Clayton +5.0 (O +4.7, D +0.3)
A Sheldon +2.7 (O +2.2, D +0.5)
J Hunter +2.1 (O +2.0, D +0.1)
S Mitchell +1.6 (O +1.5, D +0.1)
A Hadaway +0.4 (O +0.4, D 0.0)
M Brown -2.1 (O -2.6, D +0.5)
E James -2.4 (O 0.2, D -2.2)
G Wiznitz -3.5 (O -3.8, D +0.3)
A Brown -4.3 (O -2.8, D -1.5)
I Cornish -5.9 (O -3.7, D -2.2)

Immediately some validating things jump out at you, like Miles really struggling to contribute offensively but still a very good defender. Similar with Wiz. Sheldon with the solid defensive number probably surprises many, but I personally haven't seen the huge defensive liability others have. And it confirms the disappointment many have had in Ike.

I've been really high on AJ all year and I really think his usage rate needs to go UP. Someone needs to tell him he really is one of the best players in the MAC. I just feel like a little more swagger and killer instinct and he could take off.

They also have "Win Shares" and have it by 40 minutes, the thought being an average .500 team has 5 players with WS/40 around .100 and if you have 5 guys up around .200, you're very tough to beat. AJ Clayton also wins that one far and away with .205. The others are similar to the BPM except a little kinder to EJ & Wiz.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
General User

Member Since: 7/30/2010
Post Count: 3,593

Status: Offline

RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 1/31/2024 9:14:21 PM

Definitely interesting. If I recall, BPM is calculated against your teammates, right?

Basically, I think it's looking at Box Score stats and saying when this person is on the floor, do they do things (make shots, get steals, rebounds, etc) at rates that are better than the players in their role who might otherwise be on the court.

Given that, Sheldon's numbers make sense to me. He's getting credit for being far and away the best shooter on a team full of poor shooting guards.

Alan Swank
General User

Member Since: 12/11/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 7,087

Status: Offline

RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 2/2/2024 4:59:30 PM

From that site. This says NBA but I would assume the scale is the same. Accordingly we have 3 good or better starters and 5 end-of-bench players.

To give a sense of the scale:

+10.0 is an all-time season (think peak Jordan or LeBron)
+8.0 is an MVP season (think peak Dirk or peak Shaq)
+6.0 is an all-NBA season
+4.0 is in all-star consideration
+2.0 is a good starter
+0.0 is a decent starter or solid 6th man
-2.0 is a bench player (this is also defined as "replacement level")
Below -2.0 are many end-of-bench players

Last Edited: 2/2/2024 5:01:40 PM by Alan Swank

Joe McKinley
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Member Since: 11/15/2004
Post Count: 485

Status: Offline

RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 2/2/2024 5:31:42 PM

Does this metric weight or otherwise account for the relative strength of opponent? In non-conference play plus/minus against Defiance College -- a 108-28 win -- is much different than a plus minus against George Washington. In MAC play
plus/minus against Toledo or Akron is much different than against Buffalo.

I'd like to see this conference only and compare it to comparable players/positions on other MAC teams.

Also, does this account for whether starters/backups are on the floor for the opponent? Does it account for who else is on the floor for your team?

Last Edited: 2/2/2024 5:34:55 PM by Joe McKinley

Alan Swank
General User

Member Since: 12/11/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 7,087

Status: Offline

RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 2/2/2024 6:44:11 PM

Joe McKinley wrote:

I really like your third question Joe. Now that I have grandkids playing at the junior high and varsity level, I'm always intrigued by substitution patterns that put all or most of the bench players in together as opposed to putting one or two kids on the floor with the starters. Sometimes the "all in together" practice results in a circus atmosphere and little real experience in my opinion perhaps skewing a player's real value relative to the statistical model cited.

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