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Topic: MAC Betting Win Totals

Topic: MAC Betting Win Totals

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Victory
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MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/16/2023 2:52:44 PM

So, I saw this is out from Draftkings but I pulled it off VegasInsider where I was poking around curious about NBA odds. These are Regular Season totals. It doesn't count playoff, bowl, or conference championship game chances.
https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/win-to... /

This stuff becomes the opinion of proven experts, who are paid by super wealthy people to to this because they are proven experts, tweaked by the wisdom of the masses but the opinion of the people in the masses is not treated equally based off track record. So, this usually forms a better estimate on average than the majority of individual opinions. That's why its worth looking at. I'm not posting it to encourage betting on it. On the contrary, because I respect this as pretty good information, and a few were upset with CFBN's predicted win total, so I think even if you are one of the very few people whose opinion might be better than this on average the fact that they take "juice" on your bets on top of that means nearly everyone will lose over time.

Ohio 7
Miami 6.5
Buffalo - Off
Bowling Green 5
Akron 3.5
Kent State 2.5

Toledo Off
Northern Illinois 6.5
Eastern Michigan 6.5
Central Michigan 5.5
Ball State 4.5
Western Michigan 3.5

Ohio is at 7. Fanduel already has a number on the Bobcats at 7.5 so maybe 8 is more likely than 6. Ohio has the highest win total in a MAC that might not be any better than last year but that's likely because Toledo is still off the board. I have to think Toledo would be around 8 and Buffalo 6.5. That makes for half the conference above .500 and bowl eligible. Not that bad. But like last year the worst records could be a lot farther under .500 than the best records are above it.

OUr non-confercne isn't easier than Miami or Buffalo, so, while we still don't see Buffalo's win total yet, I'm thinking that if MAC East futures existed now Ohio would be a very, very slight favorite.

Last Edited: 5/16/2023 2:56:11 PM by Victory

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/17/2023 9:20:38 AM

Get in on that spread before Kurtis is announced as the starter. They'll have more than 7 before heading to Detroit.

I'm a cynic by nature, I call it a realist, and I'm *extremely* optimistic about next season.

I don't like playing FAU (beat them last season) and SDSU (Receiving $1.2M for the game) away, as those early season games are always a toss-up and tough as it is, but barring further injuries, OU should run through the MAC before meeting Toledo. Some teams have reloaded, but they did it to compete with OU. They're not there yet. This is the deepest offensive team, maybe ever. If the defense comes together, they're gonna tease the Top 25.

With Kurtis, I think it's 10 or 11 wins and we're running to Detroit.

With CJ, I still think we're looking at 9-3 heading to Detroit.

Call me crazy, 12 wins is aspirational, but not off the table.

Last Edited: 5/17/2023 9:21:47 AM by M.D.W.S.T

OhioCatFan
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/17/2023 10:36:50 AM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

Please pass me that Green Kool-Aid. I'll bet it tastes delicious. I certainly hope you are right!

Last Edited: 5/17/2023 10:37:06 AM by OhioCatFan

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

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Victory
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/17/2023 2:08:14 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

Please pass me that Green Kool-Aid. I'll bet it tastes delicious. I certainly hope you are right!

Sometimes I think that with Kurtis, most of the WR core, and Bangura back we should be very, very good on offense. It was setting records last year. While running the read is essential to the offense last year we figured out that we need to just let Kurtis sling it more than Nathan did. The defense was really, really bad, like really, for the first half of last year and we were still 3-3. I think how could we be under .500 this year if the defense shows up even a little.

Did anyone see this?

https://ugawire.usatoday.com/lists/top-graded-receivers-e... /

Jones wasn't even listed as the starter most of last year. This WR corp is good and deep. It maybe doesn't have as many NFL guys as a lot of the corps Tettleton threw to but there are some very good guys and we are crazy deep and the MAC probably isn't going to be good on the whole.

Then I think Kurtis isn't going to be anywhere near 100% even if he makes game one. We do have to replace two offensive linemen. SDSU has been in and out of the top 25 a lot in recent years, and while their offense is probably down, beating them on the other side of the country is not going to be easy. FAU will be difficult as discussed in another thread. We have ISU at home but they clocked us last year. We could easily start 1-3 even if are the MAC East favorite.

BGSU was nowhere near as good as their record last year - lucky as @#$% - but will they be better and make a tough road game? Akron could be a lot better. The Buffalo matchup usually ends up going to the home team. I think of Miami upsetting us in the CFB150 game when we were and home and almost certainly the better team and Toledo, with a lot of the same key players as last year coming back, shutting us down in the MACCG after we were all starting to really believe and then had to watch Kurtis go down. Lots of stuff can happen. We won the East last year but that was coming off a three win season. Georgia we certainly are not and we have a harder than normal OOC schedule. 7.5 or so and a very slight East favorite seems pretty reasonable to me.

Last Edited: 5/17/2023 2:52:35 PM by Victory

L.C.
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/17/2023 2:26:02 PM

But, if Ohio only wins 7 (and Albin doesn't get an automatic extension), what will people complain about?

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

OhioCatFan
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/17/2023 2:42:30 PM

L.C. wrote:

But, if Ohio only wins 7 (and Albin doesn't get an automatic extension), what will people complain about?

They'll want him fired.

Victory
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/17/2023 2:51:03 PM

L.C. wrote:

But, if Ohio only wins 7 (and Albin doesn't get an automatic extension), what will people complain about?

Think how may times that Solich won about 7. I do recall some complaining.

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/17/2023 4:26:58 PM

Victory wrote:

Then I think Kurtis isn't going to be anywhere near 100% even if he makes game one. We do have to replace two offensive linemen. SDSU has been in and out of the top 25 a lot in recent years, and while their offense is probably down, beating them on the other side of the country is not going to be easy. FAU will be difficult as discussed in another thread. We have ISU at home but they clocked us last year. We could easily start 1-3 even if are the MAC East favorite.

All correct.

In my view, they could easily start 1-3. For sure. I think they start 2-2. Maybe even get hot and go 3-1.

My point is I really don't see any definite losses on the schedule. Biggest test will probably be Iowa State, but we'll be in Athens in front of (biggest crowd ever?).

SDSU - They'll be tough, but they went 7-6 last season, after going 12-2 in 2021.

Last time we played them, we beat them 27-0 in a bowl game.

112th ranked defense.
109th ranked scoring offense.
117th ranked passing offense.

They have a senior QB, but his 12 TD 10 INT 59% doesn't scare me. Their leading rusher last season went for about 300 yards. They don't do very much well.

FAU - Beat them 7 months ago. They'll be mad about last season, but can they get a new QB ready to go? Tom Herman come out firing?

It sucks we might face all these people without Kurtis, but Sieh and Allison and CJ should be able to ground down defenses and keep OU into it to give us a shot at the end. Not having Vakos will be painful.

SBH
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/18/2023 6:39:27 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

L.C. wrote:

But, if Ohio only wins 7 (and Albin doesn't get an automatic extension), what will people complain about?

They'll want him fired.

I recall you being among those who were calling for Albin's dismissal after the 3-9 season.

OhioCatFan
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/18/2023 1:34:50 PM

SBH wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

L.C. wrote:

But, if Ohio only wins 7 (and Albin doesn't get an automatic extension), what will people complain about?

They'll want him fired.

I recall you being among those who were calling for Albin's dismissal after the 3-9 season.

Yes I was. I've since publicly atoned for that sin. I was not alone in misjudging Albin based on that first season. I guess living through Cleve and PaPaL made me and few other old farts a little too quick to see incorrect parallels.

Victory
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/18/2023 2:46:34 PM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

My point is I really don't see any definite losses on the schedule. Biggest test will probably be Iowa State, but we'll be in Athens in front of (biggest crowd ever?).

Yeah, I agree, I don't either. If Iowa State were on the road again I think that might start becoming close to that category.

Hopefully, we can call LIU a automatic win (a 50-1 shot or so, I think is where you'd put it, pretty close to automatic). What other automatic WINS are there? Akron and BGSU are road games, and while I'd pick Ohio, especially against Akron, these are not anything close to automatic wins. Western is a home game and looks like a pretty good chance for a win too but I wouldn't call it close to automatic.

We are followers of Ohio Bobcats football. We have seen this before. We know how it is. From 2010-2013 and 2016-2019 we would have been favored in 9 or 10 of 12 games going into the season and picked first or second in the East in just about all of those years. But often times we were on obvious underdog in 1, a slight underdog in 1, a slight favorite in 8, and a clear favorite in 2. Something like that.

If you are a slight favorite in all 12 games in any individual game the most likely outcome is you winning. But that does not, by any stretch, mean that your most likely record is 12-0. It would be more like 8-4. You have more chances to be upset than to pull an upset. If you are a slight favorite to win a division that doesn't mean that you are the odds on favorite. There is only one of you and five teams in the field and the collective chance of the field is usually better than that of the slight favorite. We were most certainly part of the field last year and won the East.

What did we do in most of those years I listed? We won 7 or 8 and finished second in the East. That's why I say about 7.5 wins on the O/U and a slight MAC East favorite looks reasonable to me.

Last Edited: 5/18/2023 2:47:41 PM by Victory

Bobcat1996
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/18/2023 5:52:53 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

SBH wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

L.C. wrote:

But, if Ohio only wins 7 (and Albin doesn't get an automatic extension), what will people complain about?

They'll want him fired.

I recall you being among those who were calling for Albin's dismissal after the 3-9 season.

I'm still laughing at the quotes about wanting Albin fired. There were more than a few people who were right there with OCF. They are probably the same people who complained yearly about Coach Solich. They criticized Coach Burrow for his defenses not being aggressive enough and constantly ripped Coach Albin for his play calling. Coach Solich could never satisfy those people and Coach Albin will never satisfy some of the same people. Forget the fact that since 2006 this football program in the regular season has achieved more league success, than the Bobcat basketball program. Some people will always find fault with the football coaches and football program.

OhioCatFan
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/18/2023 6:01:20 PM

Bobcat1996 wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

SBH wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

L.C. wrote:

But, if Ohio only wins 7 (and Albin doesn't get an automatic extension), what will people complain about?

They'll want him fired.

I recall you being among those who were calling for Albin's dismissal after the 3-9 season.

You may be right about most of those who wanted TA fired in his first year, but I was called a Solich loyalist, or some such, for my constant support of Frank even when we didn�t meet expectations in a particular year.

BillyTheCat
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 5/19/2023 10:05:51 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

SBH wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

L.C. wrote:

But, if Ohio only wins 7 (and Albin doesn't get an automatic extension), what will people complain about?

They'll want him fired.

I recall you being among those who were calling for Albin's dismissal after the 3-9 season.

Two folks here can pretty much say they were in the Albin corner all along, because they heard and saw how the kids responded to him, and the cuppard was not full when he took over late in the summer.

Victory
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 6/9/2023 1:20:22 PM

Victory wrote:

Ohio 7
Miami 6.5
Buffalo - Off
Bowling Green 5
Akron 3.5
Kent State 2.5

Toledo Off
Northern Illinois 6.5
Eastern Michigan 6.5
Central Michigan 5.5
Ball State 4.5
Western Michigan 3.5

Ohio is at 7. Fanduel already has a number on the Bobcats at 7.5 so maybe 8 is more likely than 6. Ohio has the highest win total in a MAC that might not be any better than last year but that's likely because Toledo is still off the board. I have to think Toledo would be around 8 and Buffalo 6.5. That makes for half the conference above .500 and bowl eligible. Not that bad. But like last year the worst records could be a lot farther under .500 than the best records are above it.

So, I checked. Toledo is on at 8.5 and Buffalo at 6.5.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 6/9/2023 2:39:13 PM

Do these win totals exclude bowl games I take it? Regardless, 7 seems awfully low for the Bobcats. Seems like a smart bet. I could see a push at 7 but 6 and less seems very unlikely unless the rest of the MAC greatly improves.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

brucecuth
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 6/9/2023 3:35:13 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Right, they exclude conference championships and bowls.

Victory
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 6/9/2023 6:38:06 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

As I said when I posted it a second site had Ohio on at that time at 7.5. Several more are out and most had Ohio at 7.5. And as I said then I personally think 7.5 is where I would put it if that were my job. It does look like we will be a slight favorite in the MAC East but certainly would not be the "odds-on favorite".

Victory
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 6/24/2023 6:50:49 PM

MAC championship futures:

MAC Teams Odds to Win MAC Championship
Toledo +170
Ohio +280
Buffalo +650
Eastern Michigan +750
Miami (OH) +900
Northern Illinois +1600
Central Michigan +1800
Bowling Green +2000
Ball State +3000
Akron +3500
Western Michigan +5000
Kent State +15000

Ohio did slightly better here than I would have guessed.

Bobcat1996
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 6/25/2023 4:03:44 PM

How does Athlon Sports project the MAC for 2023? Steven Lassan predicts and ranks all 12 teams in MAC for this fall:

MAC Football 2023 Predictions
East Division
1. Miami (Ohio)
It's a close call between the RedHawks and Ohio for the top spot in the MAC East. Miami (Ohio) catches a tougher crossover (Toledo) and has to play the Bobcats in Athens. While the path to a division title is tough, the RedHawks will benefit from the return of quarterback Brett Gabbert (missed nearly all of '22 due to injury) and a defense that could be the best in the conference after holding teams to 22.6 points a game last year. Restocking the receiving corps with Mac Hippenhammer departing is the biggest question mark on offense. Two starting linemen - Rusty Feth (Iowa) and Caleb Shaffer (Oklahoma) - transferred to Power 5 programs.

Related: MAC Football 2023 All-Conference Team

2. Ohio
Quarterback Kurtis Rourke's recovery from a torn ACL suffered late in the '22 season holds the key to Ohio's MAC title hopes. Prior to the injury, Rourke cemented himself among the nation's top quarterbacks by passing for 3,256 yards and 25 touchdowns and adding 249 yards on the ground. The Bobcats also return 1,000-yard rusher Sieh Bangura (1,078 yards) and arguably the league's top receiving corps, headlined by Sam Wiglusz (74 catches for 883 yards). The outlook on defense is more unsettled after Ohio ranked last in the MAC in yards per play allowed (6.2), gave up 28.3 points a contest and struggled to stop the pass. Coach Tim Albin dipped into the portal for help at all three levels, adding talent to a defense set to lose all-conference standouts in Jack McCrory (DL) and Tariq Drake (safety). However, six starters are back, which provides some optimism for an uptick in play for '23.

The above info is from Athlon. Lindys also projects the Redhawks to finish on top of the East. College Football News sets the win total for the Bobcats at 7.

Last Edited: 6/25/2023 4:09:59 PM by Bobcat1996

DC_United47
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 7/4/2023 1:57:12 PM

Bobcat1996 wrote:

Miami = front runners
Ohio = plucky underdogs

I can dig that storyline!

giacomo
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 7/4/2023 8:36:09 PM

Let�s ask Nostradamus.

OhioCatFan
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 7/4/2023 10:47:21 PM

giacomo wrote:

Let�s ask Nostradamus.

He hasn�t posted on this site for awhile, but he�ll be back before the first kickoff in the fall.

Victory
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 7/9/2023 4:17:52 PM

Phil Steel has Toledo #22.

randy
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RE: MAC Betting Win Totals

Posted: 7/9/2023 5:49:38 PM

I would feel comfortable taking the over (wins) for several MAC schools. Parlaying will be interesting. Thanks for starting the research.

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