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Topic: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Topic: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

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Mike Coleman
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Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 12:04:20 AM

EDITED FOR TYPO...SORRY
I took a look at the Coaching Carousel in 2021 and 2022 to see how coaches who resigned to take other opportunities' replacements fared. I only chose those who left the school by leaving on their own for another coaching opportunity or those who retired on their own under no pressure (i.e. Frank) I chose those years because the transfer portal was intact and it would give time to see how the successors have fared:
Thanks to OU alum Bill Bender of the Sporting News for a nice resource to explain how the coaches moved on.

* = higher winning percentage by replacement

2021
Hired from within:
School Outgoing (record)/Incoming (record)
Louisiana Napier (40-12)/Desomareaux (23-17)
Notre Dame Kelly (92-39)/Freeman (30-9)*
Oklahoma Riley (55-10)/Venables (22-16)
Ohio Frank Solich (115-82)/Albin (33-19)

Hired from outside with no previous coaching at school:
NONE

Hired from outside with previous coaching at school:
Fresno DeBoer (12-6)/Tedford (19-8) RETIRED*
Nevada Norvell (33-26)/Ken Wilson (4-20) FIRED
SMU Dykes (30-18)/Lashee (29-11)*

2022
Hired from within:
School Outgoing (record)/Incoming (record)
None

Hired from outside with no previous coaching at school:
UAB Bill Clark (43-20)/Dilfer (8-16)
UC Fickell (57-18)/Satterfield (8-16)
Liberty Freeze (34-15)/Chadwell (21-4)*
Cstl CarolinaChadwell (39-22)/Beck (14-11)
Kent Sean Lewis (24-31)/Kenni Burns (1-23)
Purdue Brohm (36-34)/Ryan Walters (5-19) FIRED

Hired from outside with previous coaching at school:
Louisville Satterfield (25-24)/Brohm (18-8)*

Interesting stuff. Kind of amazing one year there were no hires from within and a concurrent year with no hires from the outside! If I get a chance to do a few prior years, I will.

I'm also kind of amazed that AD's hired from the current staff only 23% of the time in these situations during this time period.

Last Edited: 12/12/2024 10:06:39 AM by Mike Coleman

Mike Coleman
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 9:06:05 AM

2020

Hired fromwithin:
App State Drinkiwitz (12-1)/Clark (40-24) FIRED
Memphis Mike Norvell (38-15)/Silverfield (41-21)

Hired from outside with previous ties
Michigan State Dantonio (114-57)/Tucker (23-21) FIRED
Colorado Tucker (5-7)/Dorrell (8-15) FIRED
SDSU Long (81-38)/Hoke (40-32)
Washington Petersen (55-26)/Jimmy Lake (7-6) FIRED

Hired from outside with no previous ties
Hawaii Rolovich(28/27)/Graham (1-10) FIRED
Baylor Rhule (19-20)/Aranda (36-29)*
Washington St. Leach (55-47)/Rolovich (5-6) FIRED NON-FOOTBALL REASONS
Fresno Tedford (26/14)/DeBoer (12/6)*
FAU Lane Kiffin (26-13)/Taggart (15-18) FIRED

Will add to tally in a bit.

Of note, Shawn Clark was let go with a 62.5 winning percentage. Albin won 63.5% of his games.

Last Edited: 12/12/2024 9:59:19 AM by Mike Coleman

L.C.
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 9:34:13 AM

I resorted your data, and computed the difference in winning percentages:

Hired from within:
+.067(+): 2021 Notre Dame Kelly (92-39)/Freeman (30-9)
+.051(+): 2021 Ohio Frank Solich (115-82)/Albin (33-19)
-.056(RTM): 2020 Memphis Mike Norvell (38-15)/Silverfield (41-21)
-.194(RTM): 2021 Louisiana Napier (40-12)/Desomareaux (23-17)
-.267(RTM): 2021 Oklahoma Riley (55-10)/Venables (22-16)
-.298(RTM): 2020 App State Drinkiwitz (12-1)/Clark (40-24) FIRED

Hired from outside with no previous coaching at school:
+.146(+): 2022 Liberty Freeze (34-15)/Chadwell (21-4)
+.067(+): 2020 Baylor Rhule (19-20)/Aranda (36-29)
+.017(+): 2020 Fresno Tedford (26/14)/DeBoer (12/6)*
-.079(RTM): 2022 Cstl CarolinaChadwell (39-22)/Beck (14-11)
-.085(-): 2020 Wash. St. Leach (55-47)/Rolovich (5-6) FIRED NON-FOOTBALL REASONS
-.157(-): 2022 Purdue Brohm (36-34)/Ryan Walters (5-19) FIRED
-.212(-): 2020 FAU Lane Kiffin (26-13)/Taggart (15-18) FIRED
-.349(-): 2022 UAB Bill Clark (43-20)/Dilfer (8-16)
-.395(-): 2022 Kent Sean Lewis (24-31)/Kenni Burns (1-23)
-.418(-): 2020 Hawaii Rolovich(28/27)/Graham (1-10) FIRED
-.427(-): 2022 UC Fickell (57-18)/Satterfield (8-16)

Hired from outside with previous coaching at school:
+.182(+): 2022 Louisville Satterfield (25-24)/Brohm (18-8)*
+.100(+): 2021 SMU Dykes (30-18)/Lashee (29-11)*
+.037(+): 2021 Fresno DeBoer (12-6)/Tedford (19-8) RETIRED*
-.069(-): 2020 Colorado Tucker (5-7)/Dorrell (8-15) FIRED
-.125(RTM): 2020 SDSU Long (81-38)/Hoke (40-32)
-.141(RTM): 2020 Washington Petersen (55-26)/Jimmy Lake (7-6) FIRED
-.144(RTM): 2020 Michigan State Dantonio (114-57)/Tucker (23-21) FIRED
-.393(-): 2021 Nevada Norvell (33-26)/Ken Wilson (4-20) FIRED

Interesting that one person accounts for the two most extreme data points, and they were at different schools: the biggest drop when he was hired, and the biggest gain when he was replaced.

Edit - I added Albin, and one more data bit, after the percentage change in winning percentage:
+ means that a winning program improved, or a losing became winning
RTM means regression to mean, such as a winning program wins less, or losing loses less
- means a winning program became losing, or a losing program lost more

Last Edited: 12/12/2024 10:42:23 AM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Mike Coleman
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 9:53:08 AM

Good work LC!

Its worth noting that the success rate of hiring from within and having the coach not having a losing record is 100%.

Seems like the crash and burn comes solely from outside hires in this portal era.

L.C.
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 10:00:05 AM

Mike Coleman wrote:

I only reformatted it. I haven't had time to look at it. Without looking, my expectation would be a certain amount of regression to the mean in all three groups.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Mike Coleman
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Location: Near the Pristine Sandy Shores of Lake Erie, OH
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 10:00:56 AM

Also added Albin. His hire wasn't in carousel articles because of when the hire occurred. It�s plain to see he was one of the most successful hires from within in the portal era.

L.C.
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 10:46:04 AM

Lots of interesting stuff here, Mike. I will look more closely when I have time. One peculiarity that I notice is that the programs that got better all have one thing in common: all were already winning, except Baylor, which was near .500. No program that was losing got better with a new coaching hire. The second thing I noticed is that the vast majority of these coaching changes involve outgoing coaches with a winning record. Does that mean that coaches with a winning record are more likely to be fired that coaches with a losing record?

Last Edited: 12/12/2024 10:48:52 AM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Mike Coleman
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Location: Near the Pristine Sandy Shores of Lake Erie, OH
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 10:53:40 AM

L.C. wrote:

I only included coaches that moved on on their own. I did this because in the portal era, you are concerned about keeping players. I wondered if this stability would prove them more successful, and it appears that would be the case.

Rebuilding a losing program from scratch would almost always involve bringing in someone from the outside, I would think.

A professional would probably dig into how many players transferring out affected the records. But I dont have time for that lol.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 11:06:42 AM

Does this mean Spence Nowinsky is our man?

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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Mike Coleman
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 11:15:35 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Does this mean Spence Nowinsky is our man?

I think it means he and Smith should be candidates, and the risky hire is from the outside. Hiring from within has a small fire rate. And the guy who was won 62.5%.

Last Edited: 12/12/2024 11:18:13 AM by Mike Coleman

Mike Coleman
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 11:23:36 AM

I think if it does come from the outside, it better be a can't miss winner like Chadwell. Mike Jacobs looks like he fits that bill.

The real myth is a hotshot assistant coming in from the outside and taking over a program. Doesn't really happen anymore except maybe losing programs.

greencat
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 12:44:39 PM

You can disregard the Trent Dilfer part.

He was a h.s. coach (and that was even not for very long), never coached college.

Plus his recruiting budget at a private prep h.s. might have been bigger than what he has at UAB in the same state as Bama and Auburn who get the mega-$$$$$$.

L.C.
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 1:13:38 PM

This sample doesn't include many teams with losing records, and those that are included didn't do all that well with a new hire. Since they aren't relevant to Ohio, I look only at teams with a winning record.

For teams who hired from within, they started with an average win percentage of .689, and with the new coach, had .641a, a drop of .048.

For teams who hired someone formerly at the school, they started a bit lower, at .642, and ended a bit lower, at .569, a drop of .073.

For teams who hired someone from the outside, they started lower still, at .621, and ended even lower, at .456.

The better a team was before the change, the more apt they were to hire an insider, and that worked the best. If the teams weren't quite as good, they turned to a former coach, and the results weren't bad. The worse a team was, the more apt they were to turn to an outsider, and the outside hires were riskier. Some worked well, but often they did not. For Fresno and Liberty, it worked well. For Coastal Carolina, Washington State, Purdue, and FAU, it didn't work as well. For UAB, Hawaii, and UC it was much worse. That's also true, obviously, of Kent State, who started with a losing record and got much, much worse.

Last Edited: 12/12/2024 1:18:02 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Mike Coleman
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Location: Near the Pristine Sandy Shores of Lake Erie, OH
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 2:23:10 PM

L.C. wrote:

Two years in, looks like Satterfield is crashing a program the worst of this group. But it's early. One year in, it would have been close to being Albin. Four years in, Albin is one of the better +/-.

UC appears to be a data anomaly in not following the trend of more successful programs hiring from within. Fickell had one of the highest winning percentages (.760), which would have suggested UC hire from within. But they didn't.

L.C.
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/12/2024 9:05:05 PM

Mike Coleman wrote:

Exactly. Satterfield is in the data twice. At UC the winning percentage dropped .427 when he arrived, more than any other coaching change on the list. UC went from a solid, winning program, to a losing program. At Louisville, when he left, the winning percentage rose .182, the most of any coaching change. It went from a mediocre program under him, to a winning program after he left.

You are correct. Most of the really strong winning programs go with inside hires, especially programs with a win percentage over .700. While Ohio isn't that high overall with Albin, if you look at the last 3 years, Ohio is 3750. If we limit the discussion to teams with a winning percentage at least as high as Solich, and don't worry about what the teams with worse records did, you find:
Inside hires: 189-106 .641. 6 examples. All 6 continued to win.
Former Staff hires: 118-78 .602. 5 examples. All 5 continued to win.
Outside hires: 78-71 .523 6 examples. 3 continued to win. 3 had losing records.

Last Edited: 12/12/2024 9:09:42 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

L.C.
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RE: Hiring From WIthin V. Outside: Statistical Analysis

Posted: 12/17/2024 6:26:14 PM

Bump.

I think it's time for people to look at this data again. When a winning program hired from within the program, 1/3 of the time the winning rate got even higher, once it dropped slightly, and the other half the time there was a more substantial drop in the win rate. In all cases, however, the replacement has a winning record.

When hiring an outsider, new to the program, to replace a winning program, the win rate improved 1/4 of the time, about the same as the insider hires. However, in over half of the cases (5/8), the winning programs ceased to be winning programs and became losing programs.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

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