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Topic:  Hold on, the MAC East Champion still NOT decided yet!!!

Topic:  Hold on, the MAC East Champion still NOT decided yet!!!
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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  Hold on, the MAC East Champion still NOT decided yet!!!
   Posted: 12/4/2020 9:29:39 PM 
I thought Buffalo had locked it up with this cancelation. Apparently not, the MAC still won't declare UB the East Champ yet:

https://www.startribune.com/buffalo-wins-mac-east-after-c... /

There seems to be unconfirmed speculation that the divisional tiebreaker may be divisional record, not overall conference record. So if UB loses to Akron next week, and Ohio beats Kent, UB would be 3-1 in division and Ohio would be 3-0. I have dug around trying to find something on the tie-breaker scenario from the MAC when this all started and I can't find anything. I'm beginning to wonder if the MAC even knows how it's going to rule. Since they still haven't declared UB the East Champ, this is the only thing I can seeing holding them back from a decision. Every other way UB comes out on top.

Last Edited: 12/4/2020 10:02:12 PM by OhioBobcat
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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/4/2020 9:59:19 PM 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBuUUBrC9eQ
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/4/2020 10:22:33 PM 
It depends on the criteria the MAC uses. Unfortunately, there's been nothing in writing from the MAC office. There have been press reports that the MAC will use win percentage as the determinant. If that's the case, Buffalo has won. The worst percentage it can have is .800 (i.e., 4-1); Kent's best possible percentage is also .800, but Buffalo has the head-to-head with them; the best possible percentage for Ohio and Fiami is .750 (3-1).

But about 15 years ago when there were 13 MAC teams, not all teams played the same number of conference games. In those years, the first determinant was number of losses. If two teams had the same number of losses, regardless of how many games they played, then they were considered tied. The first tiebreaker was head-to-head, but if they did not play during the regular season the MAC looked at how they fared against each team in the division in order of finish. So if if one team beat the third place team but the other didn't, the one that did would go to the MACCG. If both won or both lost, then they'd look at how they fared vs the fourth place team, and so on down the line. If they both did the same against each divisional team, they would look at crossover games using the same process as to how the teams finished in the West.

In 2007 BG was 6-2 and Fiami was 5-2 but Fiami went to the MACCG because they beat BG in the regular season.

My guess is they'll keep it simple and name Buffalo the winner before next week's game. Buffalo handily beat both Kent and Fiami and is getting national attention. Having them in the MACCG will boost ratings.

Last Edited: 12/4/2020 10:30:14 PM by Pataskala

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We will survive.
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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 12:01:58 AM 
Pataskala wrote:
It depends on the criteria the MAC uses. Unfortunately, there's been nothing in writing from the MAC office. There have been press reports that the MAC will use win percentage as the determinant. If that's the case, Buffalo has won. The worst percentage it can have is .800 (i.e., 4-1); Kent's best possible percentage is also .800, but Buffalo has the head-to-head with them; the best possible percentage for Ohio and Fiami is .750 (3-1).

But about 15 years ago when there were 13 MAC teams, not all teams played the same number of conference games. In those years, the first determinant was number of losses. If two teams had the same number of losses, regardless of how many games they played, then they were considered tied. The first tiebreaker was head-to-head, but if they did not play during the regular season the MAC looked at how they fared against each team in the division in order of finish. So if if one team beat the third place team but the other didn't, the one that did would go to the MACCG. If both won or both lost, then they'd look at how they fared vs the fourth place team, and so on down the line. If they both did the same against each divisional team, they would look at crossover games using the same process as to how the teams finished in the West.

In 2007 BG was 6-2 and Fiami was 5-2 but Fiami went to the MACCG because they beat BG in the regular season.

My guess is they'll keep it simple and name Buffalo the winner before next week's game. Buffalo handily beat both Kent and Fiami and is getting national attention. Having them in the MACCG will boost ratings.


It really is somewhat bizarre. As we both mentioned, had the MAC been transparent from the start, we'd all be on the same page. In short, what it boils down to is, Ohio still appears to be alive in the East race.
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 5:43:39 AM 
Let’s file suit against the MAC and have the records invalidated based on fraud and we could have the state school with the most MAC representatives send a team to Detroit.
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 5:44:46 AM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
Pataskala wrote:
It depends on the criteria the MAC uses. Unfortunately, there's been nothing in writing from the MAC office. There have been press reports that the MAC will use win percentage as the determinant. If that's the case, Buffalo has won. The worst percentage it can have is .800 (i.e., 4-1); Kent's best possible percentage is also .800, but Buffalo has the head-to-head with them; the best possible percentage for Ohio and Fiami is .750 (3-1).

But about 15 years ago when there were 13 MAC teams, not all teams played the same number of conference games. In those years, the first determinant was number of losses. If two teams had the same number of losses, regardless of how many games they played, then they were considered tied. The first tiebreaker was head-to-head, but if they did not play during the regular season the MAC looked at how they fared against each team in the division in order of finish. So if if one team beat the third place team but the other didn't, the one that did would go to the MACCG. If both won or both lost, then they'd look at how they fared vs the fourth place team, and so on down the line. If they both did the same against each divisional team, they would look at crossover games using the same process as to how the teams finished in the West.

In 2007 BG was 6-2 and Fiami was 5-2 but Fiami went to the MACCG because they beat BG in the regular season.

My guess is they'll keep it simple and name Buffalo the winner before next week's game. Buffalo handily beat both Kent and Fiami and is getting national attention. Having them in the MACCG will boost ratings.


It really is somewhat bizarre. As we both mentioned, had the MAC been transparent from the start, we'd all be on the same page. In short, what it boils down to is, Ohio still appears to be alive in the East race.


OHIO has cancelled two of past 3 weeks because of their own COVID issues, you really think they will be healthy next week too?
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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: Hold on, the MAC East Champion still NOT decided yet!!!
   Posted: 12/5/2020 8:16:37 AM 
wrote:
So if UB loses to Akron next week


Lol.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Hold on, the MAC East Champion still NOT decided yet!!!
   Posted: 12/5/2020 8:20:36 AM 
Mike Coleman wrote:
wrote:
So if UB loses to Akron next week


Lol.

+1
UB will be at least a 20-30 point favorite.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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SBH
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 8:28:50 AM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
Let’s file suit against the MAC and have the records invalidated based on fraud and we could have the state school with the most MAC representatives send a team to Detroit.


Calling my contacts in Venezuela and North Korea right now. The North Koreans can bring their boats right into Cleveland Harbor.
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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 9:24:07 AM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
Let’s file suit against the MAC and have the records invalidated based on fraud and we could have the state school with the most MAC representatives send a team to Detroit.


It seems like this is the most Democratic option. The MAC East school with the most votes should represent the division in Detroit.

I've seen crazier things happen.

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 10:31:27 AM 
The Optimist wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
Let’s file suit against the MAC and have the records invalidated based on fraud and we could have the state school with the most MAC representatives send a team to Detroit.


It seems like this is the most Democratic option. The MAC East school with the most votes should represent the division in Detroit.


If we only allowed the legal points, all legal points scored for the Cats, Buffalo wouldn’t have a chance.
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Campus Flow
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 12:54:27 PM 
Tremendous disappointment that both the Miami and Buffalo games were cancelled. The cancellation this week this week in particular has ruined the season.

A win against Kent State would at least would ensure a winning season. I don't know at 3-1 if it will be enough for a bowl game. The MAC has already had 2 bowl games cancelled with the Bahamas and Quick Lane so that leaves the conference with 4 options. Western Michigan wins the west, Central Michigan defeated Ohio and then Buffalo winning the east. The best Ohio can do is 4th in that shakeout.

More bowl games of course could be cancelled, if not the whole post season if cases continue to accelerate.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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Casper71
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 3:38:41 PM 
Who cares about bowl games this year? Nobody will travel as things are only getting worse everywhere. December looks like a r3eally bad month.

And, what is the deal with our team that the last two games were cancelled? Do we not know how to "be safe"?
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 4:23:19 PM 
Casper71 wrote:
Who cares about bowl games this year? Nobody will travel as things are only getting worse everywhere. December looks like a r3eally bad month.

And, what is the deal with our team that the last two games were cancelled? Do we not know how to "be safe"?


In a covid year we are the one team that could sell as many tickets as in a non covid year.
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 4:48:33 PM 
Looks like the West will come down to the BSU-WMU game next week. WMU is losing to EMU today and BSU has a big lead on CMU in the 4th quarter. Both WMU and BSU may be 4-1 going into next week. If so and the game is cancelled, the ESPN announcers said that BSU would be the champ because they have a better record in the division (no head-to-head). BSU's only loss was in week 1 vs Fiami.

Last Edited: 12/5/2020 4:52:45 PM by Pataskala

We will get by.
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 5:08:45 PM 
Pataskala wrote:
Looks like the West will come down to the BSU-WMU game next week. WMU is losing to EMU today and BSU has a big lead on CMU in the 4th quarter. Both WMU and BSU may be 4-1 going into next week. If so and the game is cancelled, the ESPN announcers said that BSU would be the champ because they have a better record in the division (no head-to-head). BSU's only loss was in week 1 vs Fiami.


It’s simple, we just deny the results, and show up anyway. All other results are void, as being illegal
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MonroeClassmate
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 5:20:09 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
Pataskala wrote:
Looks like the West will come down to the BSU-WMU game next week. WMU is losing to EMU today and BSU has a big lead on CMU in the 4th quarter. Both WMU and BSU may be 4-1 going into next week. If so and the game is cancelled, the ESPN announcers said that BSU would be the champ because they have a better record in the division (no head-to-head). BSU's only loss was in week 1 vs Fiami.


It’s simple, we just deny the results, and show up anyway. All other results are void, as being illegal


Say Billy don't all your comments in this particular thread belong on the General OU discussion area? You trying to hijack the thread?

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 6:01:36 PM 
MonroeClassmate wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
Pataskala wrote:
Looks like the West will come down to the BSU-WMU game next week. WMU is losing to EMU today and BSU has a big lead on CMU in the 4th quarter. Both WMU and BSU may be 4-1 going into next week. If so and the game is cancelled, the ESPN announcers said that BSU would be the champ because they have a better record in the division (no head-to-head). BSU's only loss was in week 1 vs Fiami.


It’s simple, we just deny the results, and show up anyway. All other results are void, as being illegal


Say Billy don't all your comments in this particular thread belong on the General OU discussion area? You trying to hijack the thread?



Not at all, I’m just not giving up the fight to defend the Bobcats.
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bobcatsquared
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 6:53:53 PM 
4 more years! 4 more years!
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/5/2020 10:17:28 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
MonroeClassmate wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
Pataskala wrote:
Looks like the West will come down to the BSU-WMU game next week. WMU is losing to EMU today and BSU has a big lead on CMU in the 4th quarter. Both WMU and BSU may be 4-1 going into next week. If so and the game is cancelled, the ESPN announcers said that BSU would be the champ because they have a better record in the division (no head-to-head). BSU's only loss was in week 1 vs Fiami.


It’s simple, we just deny the results, and show up anyway. All other results are void, as being illegal


Say Billy don't all your comments in this particular thread belong on the General OU discussion area? You trying to hijack the thread?



Not at all, I’m just not giving up the fight to defend the Bobcats.


Boycott the election. It's rigged anyway.

We will get by.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/6/2020 10:46:10 AM 
So this needs to happen:

1. All of Ohio, Kent, Buffalo & Akron need to be healthy enough to play this week. Considering that any single one of the four ends the possibility and Ohio and Kent are currently dealing with known Covid issues I think a reasonable guess for that game happening is maybe 50% and the Buffalo game 90%.
2. Ohio has to beat Kent. We don't know Rourke's status but this is a road game and if he is presumed unlikely to play like last week then I'm thinking we are about a four or five point underdog. The implied chance for a four point dog is 35%.
3. Akron needs to beat Buffalo. This maybe is in the single digits. I think about 8% is a good estimate.

So the odds of the game results all working in OUr favor are then according to my estimates (.50*.90*.35*.08) about 1%. But apparently we don't necessarily win the division if this occurs. It sounds like the MAC has just not yet figured out how to interpret its own rules in that scenario. So this also needs to happen:

4. The MAC rules that this sort of tie but not really tied tiebreaker goes in Ohio's favor.

Then of course to win the MAC championship:

5. Ohio would have to beat the West Champion

The point of this is, well, don't hold your breath.

Last Edited: 12/7/2020 10:57:43 AM by Victory
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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/6/2020 3:09:15 PM 
Victory wrote:
So this needs to happen:

1. All of Ohio, Kent, Buffalo & Akron need to be healthy enough to play this week. Considering that any single one of the four ends the possibility and Ohio and Kent are currently dealing with known Covid issues I think a reasonable guess for that game happening is maybe 50% and the Buffalo game 90%.
2. Ohio has to beat Kent. We don't know Rourke's status but this is a road game and if he is presumed unlikely to play like last week then I'm thinking we are about a four or five point underdog. The implied chance for a four point dog is 35%.
3. Akron needs to beat Buffalo. This maybe is in the single digits. I think about 8% is a good estimate.

So the odds of the game results all working in OUr favor are then according to my estimates (.50*.90*.35*.08) is about 1%. But apparently we don't necessarily win the division if this occurs. It sounds like the MAC has just not yet figured out how to interpret its own rules in that scenario. So this also needs to happen:

4. The MAC rules that is sort of tie but not really tied tiebreaker goes in Ohio's favor.

Then of course to win the MAC championship:

5. Ohio would have to beat the West Champion

The point of this is, well, don't hold your breath.


Thanks for the breakdown. I'm not holding my breath, but if 2020 has taught us anything, it's that anything can happen. I'm actually more surprised that the East race isn't even over yet based on the combination of the game results and the cancelled games. I figured Buffalo had won it after the OU/UB game was cancelled (and many did too as it was also reported by a number of media outlets), but Ohio is still indeed alive.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/7/2020 10:56:35 AM 
Victory wrote:

Ohio has to beat Kent. We don't know Rourke's status but this is a road game and if he is presumed unlikely to play like last week then I'm thinking we are about a four or five point underdog. The implied chance for a four point dog is 35%.


So this did open in Vegas with Kent State as a 4 point favorite and has moved to 6.
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SBH
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/7/2020 12:45:50 PM 
Frank will back out of this game as well.
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ExCat21
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC East Champions still NOT decided yet
   Posted: 12/7/2020 4:07:29 PM 
Toledo Blade must know something we dont: https://www.toledoblade.com/sports/college/2020/12/04/mac...

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