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Topic: MAC Championship Scenarios

Topic: MAC Championship Scenarios

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Andrew Ruck
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MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/7/2024 1:08:56 PM

It is time to start obsessively tracking this. If it is buried in a different thread I apologize. The tiebreaker scenarios are:

Head-to-head competition
Win percentage against common opponents
Win percentage against common opponents based on order of finish
Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
Team Rating Score metric from SportSource Analytics
Coin toss

There are 4 teams at 4-1. Ohio is the only team not playing any of the other 1 loss teams. BG is playing both Miami & WMU (at home), not to mention a tough road game at Ball St.

Toledo & Buffalo are at 3-2 and still have a shot should 3 of the 1 loss teams lose a game, something that seems very plausible.

If Ohio wins out, they still need a little bit of help but it seems near certain we would be in. If any of the other 3 lose to someone other than each other, Ohio would be in. If BG were to split with Miami & WMU, Ohio would be in. If BG were to lose both and Miami/WMU also run the table, it gets real complicated but my hunch tells me Ohio would finish the tiebreakers ahead of WMU.

Possibly a more likely scenario to examine is Ohio losing at Toledo and joining a large group of 2 loss teams in a massive tiebreaker. That gets so complicated I figure we wait 1 more week before even exploring.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

Ohio69
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/7/2024 1:19:50 PM

Announcers last night said if Ohio wins out it has a 97% chance to play in MACC.

Not sure where they get that from but sounds good to me.

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

GoCats105
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/7/2024 2:03:07 PM

WMU got the luck of the draw with the non-division scheduling this year: no Ohio, no Miami, no Toledo and they've already beat Buffalo and Ball State. One more test against BG, then you've got the directional Michigan rivalries which who the hell knows what happens there.

@BG
@CMU
EMU

BG probably has the toughest remaining schedule of the contenders, but two of those are at home.

WMU
@Ball State
Miami

Miami really needs to lose to NIU if Ohio doesn't want to sweat out that last week.

Kent State
NIU
@BG

Ohio's job is simple: win out and pray for the best. You know what you need to do by 11/20 since Miami/NIU is the day before.

EMU
@Toledo
Ball State

Toledo's path is less clear, but beat Ohio and get lucky with the other three teams and all of sudden you're back in it.

CMU
Ohio
@Akron

Buffalo probably has the easiest path of resistance, but also need help.

Ball State
@EMU
Kent State

Last Edited: 11/7/2024 2:07:38 PM by GoCats105

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/7/2024 3:08:02 PM

I'm just so angry we left the door open for Miami. AGAIN.

But yeah, plain and simple - we have to win out.

At this point, assuming we win out...

- Need Western to beat BG
- BG to beat Miami.

And then it becomes OU v WMU.

or

NIU beats Miami.
Miami beats BG.

Still OU v WMU.

shabamon
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/7/2024 3:23:59 PM

I'm cheering for BG to beat WMU. It guarantees that two of Miami, BG, and WMU will finish with two or more losses. Thereby, Ohio can control its own destiny. Or Miami can lose one more game to anyone and Ohio gets in by winning out.

L.C.
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/7/2024 4:56:37 PM

Ohio69 wrote:

Announcers last night said if Ohio wins out it has a 97% chance to play in MACC.

Not sure where they get that from but sounds good to me.

If Ohio wins out, the only way they can be NOT in the MACC is if all of the following happen:
WMU beats BG
WMU beats CMU
WMU beats EMU
Miami beats BG
Miami beats Kent
Miami beats NIU

You can't have a 3-way tie at 7-1 that involves BG because in order for BG to get to 7-1, they would have to have eliminated both WMU and Miami. Thus, the only possible three way tie is Miami, WMU, and Ohio. In that case, Ohio loses a tiebreaker to Miami because of their loss, and I presume Ohio loses a tiebreaker to WMU, but I haven't really looked at it.

Last Edited: 11/7/2024 4:59:29 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Victory
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/7/2024 4:57:25 PM

Rules: https://getsomemaction.com/documents/2024/9/18//2024_MAC_...

1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
2. Win percentage versus all common opponents.
3. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order
of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and
proceeding through other common opponents based upon their
order of finish.
4. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.
5. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score
metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of
regular season games.
6. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the
Commissioner or Commissioner�s designee

If they are both 7-1 there is likely to be a third team tied, probably Miami. So this might not be the exact procedure.
1. They'd both be 0-0
2. They'd both be unbeaten against common opponents if their records are 7-1
3. If they're both unbeaten against common opponents this fails to get a winner too.
4. If I counted correctly, Ohio's past and future MAC opponents have 16 wins to WMU's 15. So I think we have a better that 50/50 chance of winning here. If this doesn't settle it then it looks like it goes to some sort of computer system.

L.C.
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/7/2024 5:14:28 PM

Victory wrote:

Ohio and WMU share as opponents: Akron, CMU, Buffalo, Kent, EMU, and Ball St. In order to tie at 7-1, both will have beaten all six common oppenents. That gets you down to #4. Ohio's other two teams are Miami and Toledo, while WMU's are NIU and BG. To need the tiebreaker, there must be a 3 way tie at 7-1, so Miami will be 7-1, and Toledo would be no better than 5-3, for a combined 12-4. Also, BG must lose at least two more, so they would be no better than 5-3, and NIU can finish no higher than 5-3, making them 10-6.

I think you are right. Ohio wins a tiebreaker with WMU based on #4. Thus, if Ohio wins the last 3 games, they will be in the MACC no matter what.

If Ohio ends up 6-2, there are too many possibilities to even think about....

Last Edited: 11/7/2024 5:16:12 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

colobobcat66
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/7/2024 6:53:10 PM

Ohio has beat the worse 3 teams in the league and 3-2 Buffalo. We keep talking about winning out. Every game could be a loss or a win depending on which team shows up to play. Most years we lose a game that we probably shouldn�t have. Hold on to your hats.

L.C.
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/7/2024 8:23:47 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

FWIW, TeamRankings projects Ohio to end the year 6-2 in the MAC, so it would be a surprise if Ohio wins 7.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings /

Note that their projections have no team with more than 6.1 projected wins, so, regardless of which team you look at, another loss would not be a surprise. It will not surprise me at all if there is only one team in the MACC with a 7-1 conference record, and the other team is selected via the tiebreaker from a large group of teams with 6-2 records.

Given that none of us expected Ohio to be in the MACC game this year, I think we can agree that Ohio has outperformed expectations to be where they are. I think we would also all agree that Ohio has improved a lot as the season has progressed. Let's just hope they continue improve, and to continue to outperform expectations.

Edit - The reason people talk about Ohio winning out is not because it is likely. The reason is that it is the only scenario where Ohio can play in the MACC game. I'm sure that winning out is on the minds of Miami fans, WMU fans, and BG fans as well, for the same reason. None are expected to win out, but at least one team probably will. Let's hope it's Ohio.

Last Edited: 11/8/2024 9:38:01 AM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Andrew Ruck
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/8/2024 7:16:37 AM

I don't think anyone is expecting to win out, but it is definitely possible. You've got to feel good about the 2 home games, at Toledo will be tough. As LC said, even a 6-2 finish just missing out on the MACC game has to be viewed pretty positively considered all the transition that occurred.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/8/2024 9:14:49 AM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

I predicated 8 wins, so in the grand scheme... I would say it's positive they can withstand that sort of exodus and still be in it to the end... BUT like I said earlier, dropping one of those to Miami and basically setting them up for anther MACC effectively eliminating us... again...

Makes me feel ill.

Can we ruin their season soon?

TWT
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/8/2024 9:23:56 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

At this moment I'm with you and trying to enjoy each win as it happens. If the Cats only win 1 out of the last 3 and the bowl game that is still 8-5 which I would consider to be a successful season. When you are going for your 4th or 5th win and get it thats nice but when you are in play for your 7th or 8th its a sweeter reward.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/8/2024 9:27:33 AM

TWT wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

Albin has about 700,000 reasons to be excited for that 8th win.

Ohio69
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/8/2024 9:29:08 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Don't be harshing our mellow dude.

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

TWT
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Location: Alexandria, VA
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/8/2024 9:32:42 AM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

TWT wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

Albin has about 700,000 reasons to be excited for that 8th win.

Do you mean 70,000 reasons as in a bonus? He's more than safe for 2025 as it is. Oh wait that is right you are talking about the automatic contract extension I forgot about that.

Last Edited: 11/8/2024 9:33:40 AM by TWT

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/8/2024 9:34:35 AM

TWT wrote:

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

TWT wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

Albin has about 700,000 reasons to be excited for that 8th win.

Do you mean 70,000 reasons as in a bonus? He's more than safe for 2025 as it is. Oh wait that is right you are talking about the automatic contract extension I forgot about that.

He gets an automatic contract extension when OU wins at least 8 games.

L.C.
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/8/2024 9:42:34 AM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

Albin has about 700,000 reasons to be excited for that 8th win.

He might have more reasons than that. If Ohio wins 8 or more, that alone might put him in the sights of other teams looking for new head coaches. Should Ohio somehow get to 11-3 after losing so many players (including a Heisman candidate), that, combined with the clear progress the team has made since the first game, is definitely going to raise some eyebrows, and quite possibly generate some offers. And, don't forget, he already has a track record that includes a turnaround at Northwestern Oklahoma State (including an NAIA National Championship), plus a turnaround at Ohio, and 2 ten win seasons.

Last Edited: 11/8/2024 9:46:35 AM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/8/2024 3:34:41 PM

L.C. wrote:

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

Albin has about 700,000 reasons to be excited for that 8th win.

I would�ve said no way last year, but I think Curt Cig is really helping his cause. Tim will be 60. Curt is 62, I believe. Game has been going younger, but I can see maybe someone like Tulsa giving up on Wilson.

Hes been in Athens forever. I wouldn�t be surprised if he was a lifer.

Either way, I wouldn�t be upset about it. His kids are grown. He�s had a long, long career. If you wanna take your shot at a bigger program have at it boss. Get your one big payday.

With that said, secure Brian ASAP.

L.C.
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/8/2024 7:43:29 PM

Here's my thought: With the portal, it's a new world. The same old skills aren't going to produce the same old results. You're going to need a coach who has the old skills, but also is able to find and evaluate new talent in the portal and Juco, and then is able to sell them on his dreams, and then combine them with his existing players, then build a new team from the ruins of the prior one. Not everyone who tries that will succeed (e.g. Kent). Those who do succeed may be sought after. As an example, I expect the Indiana coach will be getting some big time offers after this season is over.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

OhioBobcat
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/11/2024 11:11:19 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Ohio is going to mess around and win the MAC Championship! Just watch. This team has been flying under the radar all season long and now sits in 4-way 1st place tie with three games to go. True, Ohio has benefitted from its schedule having avoided teams like BG, WMU and NIU. There's no doubt about it that Ohio got a great draw with the schedule. And when you look at what's left on the schedule for the 1st place teams, Ohio still has the best draw remaining. BG still has to play BOTH WMU and Miami, Miami still has to play BG and NIU, and WMU still has to play BG. Ohio's toughest remaining game is Toledo and they're on the outside looking in. BG or WMU will be dealt a loss on Tuesday, and BG or Miami will be dealt a loss in the last week of conference play. Ohio and WMU have had the easiest roads in the MAC to this point and Ohio still has the easiest schedule to go of the 4 teams tied for 1st with three games to go. I'll roll the dice with Ohio having to beat whatever team they face in Detroit for a winner-takes-all title shot. Sit back and enjoy the ride!

Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/11/2024 11:33:19 AM

OhioBobcat wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

I'm very confident that if we win out, we end up in Detroit. I'm only slightly confident it happens. Beat everyone and I think we're on a collision course with miami for a rematch. Can we figure out a way to run the ball against them? if not we'll have the same result. Theirs is the defense I would least like to face amongst all the contenders.

Last Edited: 11/11/2024 11:33:46 AM by Deciduous Forest Cat

Victory
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/11/2024 12:35:06 PM

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

I'm very confident that if we win out, we end up in Detroit.

LC showed that this is certain.

Last Edited: 11/11/2024 12:36:01 PM by Victory

OhioBobcat
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/12/2024 10:38:22 AM

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

OhioBobcat wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

If Ohio wins out it will be in Detroit. If Ohio gets to Detroit it will win the MAC Championship. This is the year.

Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Posted: 11/12/2024 10:53:00 AM

OhioBobcat wrote:

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

OhioBobcat wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

If Ohio wins out it will be in Detroit. If Ohio gets to Detroit it will win the MAC Championship. This is the year.

But you say this every year.

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