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Topic: Bowl Projections

Topic: Bowl Projections

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Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
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Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/8/2024 8:49:37 PM

Reviving our yearly tradition

Mark Schlabach (ESPN) Camellia Bowl Louisiana-Monroe
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Jerry Palm (CBS) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Colorado State
Patrick Andres (SI) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Bill Bender (TSN) Detroit Bowl Michigan State
Brett McMurphy (Action) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Fresno State
Brad Crawford (247) Camellia Bowl James Madison
Oliver Hodgkinson (CFNet) Arizona Bowl Fresno State
Steve Lassen (Athlon) Bahamas Bowl Jacksonville State
Pete Fiutak(CFNew) 68 Ventures Bowl Old Dominion
Erick Smith (USAT) Frisco Bowl Louisiana-Monroe

Victory
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/8/2024 9:02:23 PM

Eligible (47) Army, Tulane, Navy, Memphis, Miami, S Methodist, Clemson, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Duke, BYU, Iowa St, Colorado, Kansas St, Texas Tech, Arizona St, Oregon, Indiana, Ohio St, Penn St, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, W Kentucky, Sam Hous St, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Ohio, Toledo, Boise St, Colorado St, UNLV, Wash State, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU, Alabama, Mississippi, S Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, GA Southern, James Mad, Louisiana

Eliminated (16) Temple, Fla Atlantic, Stanford, Florida St, Purdue, TX El Paso, Kennesaw St, N Mex State, U Mass, Akron, Kent St, Wyoming, Air Force, Miss State, Troy, S Mississippi

Team Rankings sum of eligible chances: 84.67. I think 82 teams make the postseason.
Miami (OH) 99.7%
N Illinois 98.9%
Arkansas 98.8%
Jksnville St 98.7%
Liberty 97.9%
Buffalo 97.6%
Bowling Grn 97.4%
North Texas 96.9%
Marshall 96.8%
Texas St 96.7%
N Carolina 96.6%
VA Tech 96.4%
TX Christian 94.9%
Fresno St 93.6%
E Carolina 92.8%
Cincinnati 90.4%
California 88.4%
S Florida 88.3%
Baylor 87.8%
W Michigan 86.2%
Coastal Car 83.6%
Arkansas St 83.0%
E Michigan 81.9%
Michigan 81.5%
Wisconsin 79.4%
GA Tech 78.5%
Washington 72.0%
NC State 71.9%
San Jose St 69.4%
UL Monroe 69.1%
Oregon St 67.7%
S Alabama 67.7%
USC 67.3%
Nebraska 67.3%
Oklahoma 67.2%
W Virginia 61.4%
Michigan St 61.3%
UCF 59.0%
Hawaii 56.9%
Old Dominion 56.5%
Boston Col 55.2%
Rutgers 53.7%
Florida 48.4%
Utah 46.2%
UTSA 44.5%
San Diego St 37.2%
Houston 30.8%
Maryland 23.4%
Wake Forest 21.0%
UCLA 17.5%
Charlotte 13.5%
Northwestern 10.6%
Florida Intl 10.1%
Virginia 9.5%
Rice 7.7%
App State 7.3%
Oklahoma St 5.6%
Middle Tenn 5.1%
Kansas 4.9%
LA Tech 3.9%
Arizona 3.4%
Kentucky 3.1%
Auburn 2.7%
Central Mich 1.4%
Ball St 1.1%
UAB 0.9%
Tulsa 0.5%
New Mexico 0.5%
Georgia St 0.4%
Utah St 0.3%
Nevada 0.1%

Victory
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/11/2024 9:49:50 PM

Mark Schlabach (ESPN) Camellia Bowl Arkansas State
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Jerry Palm (CBS) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Patrick Andres (SI) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Bill Bender (TSN) Camellia Bowl James Madison
Brett McMurphy (Action) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl James Madison
Brad Crawford (247) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Fresno State
Oliver Hodgkinson (CFNet) Arizona Bowl UNLV
Steve Lassen (Athlon) Bahamas Bowl Jacksonville State
Pete Fiutak(CFNew) 68 Ventures Bowl Marshall
Erick Smith (USAT) Cure Bowl UConn

SI is not yet updated for this week

Last Edited: 11/12/2024 5:11:22 PM by Victory

Victory
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/11/2024 9:53:07 PM

Eligible (53):Army, Tulane, Navy, Memphis, S Methodist, Miami, Clemson, Louisville, GA Tech, Duke, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, BYU, Colorado, Kansas St, Iowa St, Arizona St, TX Christian, Texas Tech, Oregon, Indiana, Ohio St, Penn St, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, W Kentucky, Jksnville St, Sam Hous St, Liberty, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Ohio, Toledo, Boise St, Colorado St, UNLV, San Jose St, Wash State, Texas, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, S Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, GA Southern, Marshall, James Mad, Louisiana

Ineligible (23):Rice, UAB, Temple, Fla Atlantic, Stanford, Florida St, Oklahoma St, Purdue, Middle Tenn, TX El Paso, N Mex State, Kennesaw St, U Mass, Akron, Kent St, Wyoming, Utah St, Air Force, Nevada, Miss State, Georgia St, Troy, S Mississippi

Teamrankings sum is 83.7. 82 teams make the postseason.

Texas St 99.80%
Miami (OH) 99.70%
N Illinois 98.90%
Arkansas 98.60%
Buffalo 97.80%
Bowling Grn 97.40%
N Carolina 96.70%
California 96.50%
North Texas 96.00%
VA Tech 93.10%
E Carolina 92.80%
W Virginia 87.60%
Baylor 87.00%
W Michigan 86.70%
Coastal Car 84.10%
Rutgers 82.40%
E Michigan 81.50%
Michigan 80.80%
Wisconsin 80.60%
Arkansas St 77.40%
Boston Col 76.00%
S Florida 75.00%
Cincinnati 73.30%
Fresno St 70.70%
Nebraska 68.60%
USC 63.90%
S Alabama 63.70%
Washington 63.10%
UL Monroe 60.20%
Michigan St 59.30%
Old Dominion 56.00%
Hawaii 54.00%
UCLA 48.20%
UTSA 46.10%
NC State 41.50%
Florida 40.80%
Oklahoma 40.20%
Virginia 32.80%
UCF 32.40%
Utah 31.30%
Houston 30.40%
Oregon St 25.00%
Maryland 20.60%
Charlotte 16.00%
Kansas 11.90%
Florida Intl 10.80%
Northwestern 9.50%
Wake Forest 9.40%
App State 6.90%
Arizona 3.10%
Kentucky 2.50%
San Diego St 2.20%
New Mexico 2.20%
Auburn 2.10%
Central Mich 1.30%
Ball St 1.10%
Tulsa 0.60%
LA Tech 0.40%

Tymaster
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/12/2024 1:43:18 PM

Victory wrote:

Mark Schlabach (ESPN) Camellia Bowl Arkansas State
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Jerry Palm (CBS) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Patrick Andres (SI) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Bill Bender (TSN) Camellia Bowl James Madison
Brett McMurphy (Action) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl James Madison
Brad Crawford (247) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Fresno State
Oliver Hodgkinson (CFNet) Arizona Bowl UNLV
Steve Lassen (Athlon) Bahamas Bowl Jacksonville State
Pete Fiutak(CFNew) 68 Ventures Bowl Marshall
Erick Smith (USAT) Frisco Bowl Louisiana-Monroe

SI and USAToday are not yet updated for this week

The real question is, are these guys just plugging in holes at random to fill in a bracket or do they have some smidgen of inside info? The reason I ask is because the bulk of the predictions had us at the Salute to Veterans Bowl for several weeks but now that we are officially bowl eligible, most of the prognosticators are sending us back to Boise.

TWT
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/12/2024 1:58:49 PM

Tymaster wrote:

Victory wrote:

Mark Schlabach (ESPN) Camellia Bowl Arkansas State
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Jerry Palm (CBS) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Patrick Andres (SI) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Bill Bender (TSN) Camellia Bowl James Madison
Brett McMurphy (Action) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl James Madison
Brad Crawford (247) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Fresno State
Oliver Hodgkinson (CFNet) Arizona Bowl UNLV
Steve Lassen (Athlon) Bahamas Bowl Jacksonville State
Pete Fiutak(CFNew) 68 Ventures Bowl Marshall
Erick Smith (USAT) Frisco Bowl Louisiana-Monroe

SI and USAToday are not yet updated for this week

I don't believe they have any inside info. The fact remains we'll be in a bowl game and we are playing for a national TV appearance in the MACC at the moment.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

Victory
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/12/2024 5:06:40 PM

Tymaster wrote:

Victory wrote:

Mark Schlabach (ESPN) Camellia Bowl Arkansas State
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Jerry Palm (CBS) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Patrick Andres (SI) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Bill Bender (TSN) Camellia Bowl James Madison
Brett McMurphy (Action) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl James Madison
Brad Crawford (247) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Fresno State
Oliver Hodgkinson (CFNet) Arizona Bowl UNLV
Steve Lassen (Athlon) Bahamas Bowl Jacksonville State
Pete Fiutak(CFNew) 68 Ventures Bowl Marshall
Erick Smith (USAT) Frisco Bowl Louisiana-Monroe

SI and USAToday are not yet updated for this week

No, I don't think that they have any inside info. They just project out the remaining games and look at things, I think to varying degrees, like who has been to what bowl recently.

Victory
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/12/2024 5:10:12 PM

After 11/16

Eligible (62): Tulane, Army, Navy, Memphis, E Carolina, S Methodist, Clemson, Miami, GA Tech, Louisville, N Carolina, Duke, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, BYU, Colorado, Iowa St, Arizona St, Kansas St, TX Christian, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oregon, Indiana, Ohio St, Penn St, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, Rutgers, Jksnville St, W Kentucky, Sam Hous St, Liberty, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Bowling Grn, Ohio, Miami (OH), Toledo, Buffalo, N Illinois, Boise St, Colorado St, UNLV, San Jose St, Wash State, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Mississippi, Alabama, S Carolina, LSU, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Marshall, James Mad, GA Southern, Louisiana, Texas St, Arkansas St

Ineligible (30): Rice, Charlotte, Temple, UAB, Tulsa, Fla Atlantic, Stanford, Florida St, Oklahoma St, Purdue, Florida Intl, Middle Tenn, TX El Paso, N Mex State, Kennesaw St, U Mass, Ball St, Akron, Central Mich, Kent St, San Diego St, Utah St, Hawaii, Wyoming, Air Force, Nevada, Miss State, Georgia St, Troy, S Mississippi

Teamrankings sum is 83.8. If I counted correctly there are 82 postseason spots. There is a pretty good chance that the MAC will have eight eligible teams and a 6-6 MAC team will watch the bowls from home. I'd think that EMU is a a good candidate to be one of most likely two or three eligible FBS teams that end up watching. If it goes over by more than that I think more than one will be watching.

Arkansas 98.30%
S Florida 97.00%
S Alabama 96.50%
California 95.50%
VA Tech 93.20%
North Texas 90.60%
UTSA 88.70%
W Michigan 84.50%
Florida 82.60%
Coastal Car 80.70%
Michigan 80.20%
USC 79.90%
Wisconsin 78.10%
Boston Col 73.60%
E Michigan 73.40%
W Virginia 70.40%
Fresno St 69.60%
Cincinnati 64.30%
Nebraska 60.60%
UL Monroe 54.60%
NC State 43.80%
Oklahoma 43.70%
Old Dominion 40.10%
Michigan St 37.90%
UCF 36.90%
New Mexico 35.30%
Virginia 32.70%
Kansas 26.00%
UCLA 21.30%
Utah 12.50%
Northwestern 8.20%
App State 8.10%
Arizona 6.90%
Houston 4.70%
Auburn 3.00%
Kentucky 2.80%
LA Tech 2.20%
Oregon St 1.50%
Wake Forest 1.40%
Maryland 1.40%

Last Edited: 11/17/2024 12:27:59 PM by Victory

Victory
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/19/2024 5:14:38 PM

Mark Schlabach (ESPN) Camellia Bowl Arkansas State
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) GameAbove Sports Bowl Michigan State
Jerry Palm (CBS) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Patrick Andres (SI) Arizona Bowl Colorado State
Bill Bender (TSN) GameAbove Sports Bowl Rutgers
Brett McMurphy (Action) Arizona Bowl San Jose State
Brad Crawford (247) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl James Madison
Oliver Hodgkinson (CFNet) Arizona Bowl UNLV
Steve Lassen (Athlon) Bahamas Bowl Jacksonville State
Pete Fiutak (CFNews) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl San Jose State
Erick Smith (USAT) Camellia Bowl Georgia Southern

ExCat21
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/19/2024 8:00:38 PM

Really can't see us going back to Arizona. Pretty sure they will rotate it to another team to experience that bowl game.

I would love to play a P4 team. That Michigan State bowl game would be awesome. Nice exposure during times when teams are switching conferences. Not saying we will get offered, but the more opportunities we get to beat them on TV, the better. Plus any athletes in the portal would take a serious look at us after we were gutted the previous portal cycle and still found success.

Tymaster
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/20/2024 9:16:55 AM

ExCat21 wrote:

*Supposedly* Ohio gets bigger bowl ratings and sells more tickets than most other MAC programs, so inviting them back doesn't actually surprise me. I say supposedly because I don't think any MAC teams really do that well in the $$$$ sense in these bowls but I understand that the AB was very happy with the numbers from OU's visit two years ago and now it's a bigger deal and I, for one, would be very cool with OU being on a game that is actually nationally broadcast on over-the-air network tv. Believe it or not, but the CW has 100% coverage in the US because it has so many smaller stations in smaller markets along with the stations in the large markets.

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/20/2024 10:33:46 AM

ExCat21 wrote:

Pin this to the top.

We have to find a way to better market ourselves as a destination to find success - before OR after you've been to the P4.

Rourke. Sears.

What a year for former Ohio Bobcats. Rourke crushing it. Sears could be POY. I know some peoples ass are still burnt, but this is our reality - we should craft the narrative.

Come to OU, we can build you into the best players in the country.

If you've already been to a power program and didn't find success, come here and win some jewelry. We can be raided and still hold our status. Come be a part of a stone cold winner.

Last Edited: 11/20/2024 10:35:50 AM by M.D.W.S.T

ExCat21
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/20/2024 6:23:47 PM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

ExCat21 wrote:

Every mid-major will have to market themselves differently. This could be a great selling point as you stated. Even a nice presentation of transfers who went on to have success would work wonders (Rourke, Wiglusz, Sears, etc). Really proud of OU and its response to the "NIL/portal era" and the changing sports landscape of realignment.

Last Edited: 11/20/2024 6:24:53 PM by ExCat21

cbarber357
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/20/2024 10:26:21 PM

I�d love for us to have a shot at a Big 10 team in Detroit, I probably won�t be able to make a likely MAC title game on the 7th but easily can make a 2pm in Detroit on the 26th.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/21/2024 8:36:15 AM

cbarber357 wrote:

I�d love for us to have a shot at a Big 10 team in Detroit, I probably won�t be able to make a likely MAC title game on the 7th but easily can make a 2pm in Detroit on the 26th.

Totally agree, I have been wanting this for years. Would love to play a 6-6 Wisconsin or something to that degree. Have we ever played a P5 team in a bowl? Just seems like we always get the same type of opponents.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/21/2024 9:52:28 AM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

cbarber357 wrote:

I�d love for us to have a shot at a Big 10 team in Detroit, I probably won�t be able to make a likely MAC title game on the 7th but easily can make a 2pm in Detroit on the 26th.

Vakos Bowl

Victory
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/24/2024 10:54:42 AM

After week 13: 11/13
Eligible (77): Tulane, Army, Navy, E Carolina, Memphis, S Florida, UTSA, S Methodist, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, GA Tech, Duke, Syracuse, N Carolina, Boston Col, Pittsburgh, California, BYU, Colorado, Arizona St, Iowa St, Kansas St, TX Christian, Texas Tech, W Virginia, Baylor, Oregon, Indiana, Penn St, Ohio St, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, Michigan, USC, Rutgers, Nebraska, Jksnville St, W Kentucky, Liberty, Sam Hous St, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Ohio, Bowling Grn, Miami (OH), Buffalo, Toledo, N Illinois, Boise St, UNLV, Colorado St, Fresno St, San Jose St, Wash State, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, S Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, Missouri, LSU, Florida, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Marshall, GA Southern, James Mad, Louisiana, S Alabama, Arkansas St, Texas St

Ineligible (41): Charlotte, UAB, Rice, Temple, Tulsa, Fla Atlantic, Wake Forest, Stanford, Florida St, Houston, UCF, Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma St, UCLA, Northwestern, Maryland, Purdue, LA Tech, Florida Intl, N Mex State, TX El Paso, Middle Tenn, Kennesaw St, U Mass, Akron, Central Mich, Ball St, Kent St, Utah St, Hawaii, San Diego St, Air Force, Wyoming, Nevada, Kentucky, Miss State, Old Dominion, Georgia St, Troy, S Mississippi

Teamrankings sum is 83.64. There are postseason 82 spots. There will be exactly 7 MAC teams as the winner of EMU/WMU is eligible. Every year I have done this that sum stays very consistent all year but then ends up 1 or 2 above the sum it as been predicting all year at the end of the regular season. I think that the model is fitted to all week predictions but it certainly does seem that more 5-6 teams beat 7-4 type of teams that are in a bowl but out of the conference race than you'd expect with the same performance gap in other weeks. I'd bet 2-4 eligible teams will be sitting home and the winner of MAC game will be one of them. With 8 wins we only have getting to the MAC Championship to worry about.

VA Tech 83.90%
North Texas 78.50%
W Michigan 67.50%
Coastal Car 53.10%
Kansas 51.40%
Wisconsin 50.60%
Cincinnati 46.00%
Michigan St 45.40%
New Mexico 36.40%
App State 35.30%
NC State 33.80%
E Michigan 32.50%
UL Monroe 16.80%
Virginia 16.10%
Auburn 9.80%
Oregon St 6.60%

Victory
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Post Count: 2,261

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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/26/2024 6:06:09 PM

Mark Schlabach (ESPN) Camellia Bowl Arkansas State
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) GameAbove Sports Bowl Michigan State
Jerry Palm (CBS) Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Colorado State
Patrick Andres (SI) GameAbove Sports Bowl Wisconsin
Bill Bender (TSN) Camellia Bowl James Madison
Brett McMurphy (Action) Arizona Bowl San Jose State
Brad Crawford (247) Arizona Bowl San Jose State
Oliver Hodgkinson (CFNet) New Mexico Bowl San Jose State
Steve Lassan (Athlon) GameAbove Sports Bowl Michigan State
Pete Fiutak (CFNews) Camellia Bowl Georgia Southern
David Kenyon (BR) Arizona Bowl San Jose State

Last Edited: 11/29/2024 11:46:03 AM by Victory

colobobcat66
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/27/2024 9:08:55 AM

I wonder if there will be a team or 2 which qualifies that will sit out the postseason. It has happened a few times (ND did it once as I remember)and I wonder if a team with a coaching search ( like NC)!would sit it out. Some fans at Toledo are calling for no bowl, but that�s after game frustration.

Victory
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/27/2024 9:41:14 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

My math on the math from teamrankings shows that this is definitely more likely than not. It is far from a guarantee but I think 2-4 eligible teams staying home is most likely and the winner of EMU/WMU probably is staying home.

El Gato Roberto
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/27/2024 10:36:06 AM

Victory wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

I wouldn�t be surprised if Toledo declines. It might depend on what happens with the Portal.

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

colobobcat66
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/27/2024 11:25:28 AM

Victory wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

I�m really thinking about teams declining to go.

ou79
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/27/2024 4:09:50 PM

Call me crazy but if LSU loses to Oklahoma this weekend and/or does not get what they consider an upper tier bowl game invitation, I could see them passing on any bowl invite. Suffice it to say that fans in Baton Rouge and all over Louisiana are not happy with Coach Kelly. The problem is who has the money to payout $70,000,000.00 to Coach Kelly and pay BIG $$$$ to bring in a good new HC?

Last Edited: 11/27/2024 4:14:24 PM by ou79

BillyTheCat
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/29/2024 5:07:41 AM

ou79 wrote:

Coach Kelly took advantage of some thirsty Cajuns. Good for him.

ExCat21
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RE: Bowl Projections

Posted: 11/29/2024 11:04:46 AM

El Gato Roberto wrote:

Victory wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

I wouldn�t be surprised if Toledo declines. It might depend on what happens with the Portal.

MAC Teams can't afford to sit out. We all need that bowl money since it's equally paid out. Highly doubt Toledo will decline a bowl invite and extra practices.

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