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Topic: It looks like Fleck has competition

Topic: It looks like Fleck has competition

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L.C.
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It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/7/2015 7:18:01 PM

for the honor of being the MAC's best recruiter. Based on early results, it looks like Leipold will top him. (As most of you know, Leipold was the recruiting coordinator for Solich at Nebraska before Solich was fired.)

First, looking at "stars", the percentage of recruits that are "3-star":
Buffalo 67%
WMU 59%
Miami 39%
Toledo 30%
NIU 30%
BG 23%
Ohio 15%
Ball St 13%
CMU 13%
EMU 11%
(Akron, Kent, U.Mass excluded due to low number or reported commits.)

If you look at the Rank-by-offers site, the number of points per recruit:
Buffalo 149.09
Toledo 138.37
WMU 102.80
Miami 86.94
BG 79.71
Ohio 54.55
Ball St 46.57
NIU 39.83
CMU 34.81
EMU 19.21
(Akron, Kent, U.Mass excluded due to low number or reported commits.)

You can win with coaching, or you can win with recruiting. Ohio continues to get more out of their players than most other schools, so I'm not concerned at seeing some of these ahead of Ohio, though I'd like to see Ohio higher on the list. Unfortunately, Leipold seems to get a lot out of his players, too, and nearly beat BG using leftovers from Jeff Quinn. I predict that he'll be gone from Buffalo in no more than 3 years because every school wants a great recruiter than can also coach.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Casper71
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/8/2015 9:53:03 AM

Just confirms the impression that I have had for a while: this staff is happy recruiting a very specific kind of under the radar/under rated player. I continue to just dream about how good we could be if we got MORE and BETTER players to Campus (50% 3-star guys every year) like Western, Toledo and now Buffalo are doing. Until that happens, we are what we are. A nice Top 4-5-6 MAC program.

I guess depending on where you come from you are happy because that is a big improvement over the 70s and 80 and early 90s. OR you are frustrated because we just continue to be the Cubs of the MAC with no MACC since god knows when (1968) and none anywhere in the near future...

Last Edited: 10/8/2015 9:54:30 AM by Casper71

Monroe Slavin
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/8/2015 3:25:20 PM

Oh! Oh!

Where's the band?!
WHERE"S THE BAND?!

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Bcat2
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 8:23:10 AM

Casper71 wrote:

A few things. BG WR Lewis nearly came to Ohio. Why did he wind up at BG? Now which of these were/are not worthy of being a Bobcat? Carrie, Herman, Crutcher, Sayles, Basham, Wells, Poling, Pruehs, Donte Foster, TT, Papi White, .... need to go, would someone please continue this list?

Last Edited: 10/9/2015 8:53:13 AM by Bcat2

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

Casper71
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 9:38:12 AM

Bcat2, this discussion goes on and on in perpetuity and I have stayed out of it for a while. But, I repeat, the bottom line and fact of the matter is: OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN ENOUGH PLAYERS/HIGHLY RATED PLAYERS TO ATHENS TO WIN A MACC. That fact cannot be argued. I realize we have had SOME good players and gotten SOME guys drafted and signed as free agents. We simply have NOT gotten enough of those 3-star, under the radar 2-star and NR guys to win a MACC. Over that time, a bunch of other MAC teams have gotten the players to win a MACC. End of story.

L.C.
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 11:08:46 AM

Casper71 wrote:

Certainly CMU had the players to win a MACC during the 2006-2009 time period, and NIU had the players since then. Mixed in are a few other MAC wins and losses, some of them had the talent, others caught some breaks along the way. Sometimes you need both.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Bcat2
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 11:24:31 AM

Casper71 wrote:

Negative. The MACC requires the stars to be aligned. I have seen several Ohio teams with the talent to be MACC. The team that beat Penn State and reappeared in the Independence Bowl was of that type. I believe the team that handled Marshall this year is MACC material. Will the stars align for them, don't know. Please answer my queries. Why are the Lewis' going to BG? Which of the listed two stars should not have been at Ohio in favor of more worthy 3 star high school wonders?

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

Bcat2
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 11:45:04 AM

L.C. wrote:

Casper71 wrote:

L.C. the dominate teams mentioned, CMU & NIU, were the players that put them over the top highly rated out of high school?

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

Paul Graham
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 12:01:23 PM

Regarding CMU...Antonio Brown was highly rated out of high school but had academic concerns that ultimately landed him at CMU. Lefevour was a 2-star with 3 MAC offers.

Bcat2
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 1:06:37 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

Regarding CMU...Antonio Brown was highly rated out of high school but had academic concerns that ultimately landed him at CMU. Lefevour was a 2-star with 3 MAC offers.

Thx Paul.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

Casper71
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 1:23:38 PM

What do you guys not understand? I am NOT bashing this program, I am simply stating a fact: We have NOT won a MACC in 10 years and other teams have. Believe me, I think this coaching staff can coach! I have simply stated over and over that what they have been unable to do so far is get ENOUGH GOOD PLAYERS...rated or not... on the field, at the same time to win a MACC. What's so difficult to understand about that statement? I think we all agree it takes both ENOUGH GOOD PLAYERS plus some LUCK to win it all. It just hasn't happened for OHIO for about 50 years.

I don't really care why some guy didn't end up here. And, I don't care if some guy goes somewhere else or who some other school got. I am only worried about OHIO and I am simply saying that NOT ENOUGH GOOD PLAYERS have shown up in Athens and gotten onto the field at the same time to win a MACC. When they do we will win one.

I'm anxiously awaiting...

L.C.
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 2:20:54 PM

Bcat2 wrote:

L.C. the dominate teams mentioned, CMU & NIU, were the players that put them over the top highly rated out of high school?

No in both cases. Recruiting coverage has changed a lot over the last 20 years, and it's much more consistent these days. In the CMU years there was very little coverage of recruiting in Michigan, so most all of the CMU recruits were unknown. Today there is better coverage of Michigan, but there is still lesser coverage of the Illinois/Wisconsin/Iowa area that NIU draws from, so many of the NIU recruits have also been under the radar.

Then, of course, there is also the factor you are talking about, the lesser correlation between performance and evaluation at the 2-star/3-star level compared to the 4-star/5-star level. I check the correlation between how Ohio recruits are rated and how they perform regularly, and there is very rarely much correlation. You see unrated players come in and start, and highly players come in and never make it up the depth chart.

To me Ohio doesn't need to have top-of-the-mac rated classes to win the MAC. The coaches get a lot more out of the players than most coaches. Ohio got to the MACC three times, and was competitive the last time, using recruiting classes that were usually ranked near the bottom of the MAC. The last few classes have been rated much higher, and more significantly, Solich commented after seeing them report to camp, that they were the best classes he's seen yet. Given what they accomplished with the lower-rated classes, I can only expect more from these recent ones. They are going to win a lot of games.

Casper71 wrote:

I don't think you're bashing the program any more that I'm bashing it. I generally agree with you, though I don't think they need to have the absolute best talent to win it, so long as they have pretty good talent, plus some coaching, and some luck. I do agree with Bcat2 that the 2012 team did have enough talent to win the MACC, until they lost 19 players for the season due to injury. That's where the luck factor comes in - they had the players that year, but no luck at all.

The stars seem to be aligning themselves to where I believe Ohio will have the players for the next few years, too, where they could win the MAC. Will they have "some LUCK", too? I don't know.

Last Edited: 10/9/2015 2:57:51 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Casper71
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 2:58:37 PM

L.C., the injury thing is why I always bring up ENOUGH QUALITY PLAYERS along with LUCK. It's first, don't have injuries (hahaha). But, second, if you have injuries you MUST have enough depth not to lose too much of a beat. For example, look at BG last year when they lost QB #1. A guy walks right in and does really well (winning the Division title). We sure haven't had that kind of luck, especially at the QB position.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 3:53:16 PM

Bcat2 wrote:

Casper71 wrote:

Seriously?

Facts is facts. No MACC.

If there was MACC, then there'd be MACC and you could assert that we have MACC talent.

But no MACC is 100% clear proof that we don't have MACC talent.

Or, are you asserting that we do and that the coaching is inferior?

L.C.
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 5:02:32 PM

Casper71 wrote:

I don't think you ever have a year when you don't lose one or two players for the year, and some others for a week here or there. The injuries this year would be pretty typical, I think. With a reasonable level of injuries, the next player steps up and fills in, and you can still move forward, which is what they are doing now. The 2012 year went way above and beyond that. I don't think any team, at any level, has enough depth that they can lose 19 players and still be close to what they were before.

Monroe Slavin wrote:

...But no MACC is 100% clear proof that we don't have MACC talent....

Certainly the team that remained after losing 19 players in 2012 did not have enough talent to win the MACC. Did the team that we saw in fall camp have enough talent? I would say that any MAC team that could go into the home stadium of a Big Ten powerhouse, and not only beat them, but dominate them, would certainly have been in the running, but we'll never know.

Getting back to the present, Ohio's recruiting classes these days are typically ranked in the top half of the MAC. I'd love to see them at the very top, but I also recognize that Ohio's teams have always performed significantly better than their recruiting classes would predict.

That makes me think. If I get some time, I think I will combine all the national recruiting rankings from the last four years to get a "predicted team strength", and then compare that to actual team strengths. Since teams are a product of the input (recruits) and the process (coaching), that should give us some sort of a measure of coaching ability. On average coaches will be equal, but some coaches will have higher ranked recruiting than they have teams, while others will have higher ranked teams than recruits.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

L.C.
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 7:53:58 PM

OK, I did exactly that. I used to recruiting rankings from 2012-2015 to predict what the ranking "should" be for all FBS teams, and then compared it to what they actually are, and posted it over on the main forum.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Bcat2
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/9/2015 9:00:27 PM

L.C. wrote:

Thanks. Boggles the mind.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

Sam bobcat
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/10/2015 8:08:07 PM

Purdue has made the mistake of taking 3 star "athletes" over two star and less football players. That's why they would lose to most MAC teams. I've watched several 4 star recruits this season committed to P5 programs who look like beasts but stop playing in the second quarter when their teams were down by a couple scores. Stars don't measure character or drive or fight or instinct, etc. And I am pretty sure one of them may never see the field at the next level because of academic/character issues. Purdue and Rutgers both lost highly rated players to arrests over the last few weeks.

L.C.
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/10/2015 9:06:05 PM

Sam bobcat wrote:

Ohio has been down both roads at points in the past, and I'd much prefer that they take players with grades issues than character issues. Solich has always preferred the hard working players over the flashier guys, and his teams reflect that. In general his teams have been gritty, hard working teams that battle to the end. This year's team is a good example. I hope you've been enjoying watching these Bobcats.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Sam bobcat
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/10/2015 9:27:22 PM

That's the kind of football I enjoy watching. Coming to see them play it home for the first time next weekend against WMU. Lookng forward to it! Go Bobcats!

Last Edited: 10/10/2015 9:28:18 PM by Sam bobcat

Jeff McKinney
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/11/2015 10:29:50 PM

Isn't it true that the time period this data is based on reflects current recruiting, not the past two or three years? Ohio would be much higher in these rankings if the last two to three years were analyzed. For some reason, Ohio has taken a step back in getting commitments from highly touted players during the current recruiting season...thus, we rank low in this measure for current recruiting.

Last Edited: 10/11/2015 10:31:41 PM by Jeff McKinney

L.C.
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/11/2015 11:33:46 PM

Jeff McKinney wrote:

Yes, Jeff, the data in the first post is based entirely on the 2016 recruiting class, which is of course incomplete. It may change a bit before it's done, but the classes are half full, or better, for most schools. I agree that Ohio's class for 2016 so far has less than usual 3-star players, or at least less than the 2013-2015 classes. My gut tells me that is a normal pattern. The classes start with solid players that the coaches have seen in camps, then towards the end they add a few more players to the class that tend to be the ones in the class with the highest ratings. They also seem to be the ones that are most apt to have academic issues, and to not show up.

As for the data that I posted on the main page, that was based on the recruiting years of 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015, which are the recruiting classes that make up the bulk of the teams at most schools. I applied a little more weight to the 2012 class than others, and less weight to the 2015 class. I debated including the 2011 class as well, but decided against it. That class would contribute fifth year seniors to this year's team, but I excluded it on the basis that the best players from the 2011 class may have already used up their eligibility.

In any cases, I noticed that the recruiting rankings are fairly stable from year to year for most schools, so changing my method to include 2011, or changing the weights of the various years wouldn't really change things very much.

Last Edited: 10/11/2015 11:38:51 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/17/2015 3:11:41 PM

About the title of this thread. Apparently not in Athens.

L.C.
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/18/2015 12:29:26 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

About the title of this thread. Apparently not in Athens.

Well, Leipold didn't fare any better against CMU than Ohio did against WMU.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
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RE: It looks like Fleck has competition

Posted: 10/21/2015 8:36:27 PM

L.C. wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

About the title of this thread. Apparently not in Athens.

Well, Leipold didn't fare any better against CMU than Ohio did against WMU.

Thank you for that truly irrelevant, not-comparable factoid.

Let's be more specific: Leipold is in his first year as Beefs head coach. (Clue: first year does not equal eleventh year.)

Leipold won national championships, albeit at a lower division, in (what follows is from Wikipedia) "2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2014 and were runners-up in 2008. Their opponent in each of those title games was Mount Union.

Leipold reached 100 victories faster than any coach in National Collegiate Athletic Association history, doing so in his 106th game on October 18, 2014. This broke the previous mark of 108 games set by Gil Dobie in 1921.

DO ME A FAVOR: Take a poll across football fans and experts across the nation. Ask them whether they'd rather have Solich or Leipold.

Solich is a good man. He's not the deity you think he is.

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