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Ohio Football Recruiting

Topic: Are recruiting rankings accurate?

Topic: Are recruiting rankings accurate?

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L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,271

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Are recruiting rankings accurate?

Posted: 2/19/2014 2:28:07 PM

Here's a compelling statistical analysis that in most cases, yes, recruiting ranking do matter, and are accurate. They divide the top 72 teams (AQ teams+AAC+Independents) into groups that ended up ranking best to worst in recruiting, and show that 5-star teams (Alabama, Florida, Texas, etc) consistently beat 4-star teams (Arkansas, Nebraska, Texas A&M, etc), and so on, with the lowest ranked group, 1-star teams (UCF, U.Conn, Temple, etc), winning least often. They did find a few teams that seem to consistently do better than recruiting rankings alone would predict, such as Kansas State.

Left unanswered, is to what extent there is any accuracy below the top 72 Teams. I would presume that if they lumped the other 54 teams into a group, and called it 0-star, they would lose to the 1-star teams most of the time. That doesn't tell us, however, whether you could group those 54 teams into 3/4 star, 1/2 star, 1/4 star, and 0 star teams, and find the same relationships. Given that the recruiting services don't put much emphasis in recruits below the 3-star level, I would suspect that the relationships would be a lot more murky.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Casper71
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Member Since: 12/1/2006
Post Count: 2,918

Status: Offline

RE: Are recruiting rankings accurate?

Posted: 2/19/2014 3:33:50 PM

L.C., I think this sorta reinforces what I have been saying. These services do really look at 3-star and above guys and the more of them you have, the better you do. I understand the jury is out on those 52 schools that get lots more 2-star and "under the radar" guys. I guess my point has always been if you start out with "better" players (at least 3 stars) you should see better results on the field. The reality is you cannot find enough 2-sar and under the radar guys that really are 3-4-5 star guys to win big. Sure, we get one or two every few years but I still say starting with 15-3-star guys is a better approach...if you can get them to your campus. I still think that is our problem, just getting them to be really interested in us.

Question is: why aren't more 3-star guys and above interested in OHIO enough to make it their final destination?

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,271

Status: Offline

RE: Are recruiting rankings accurate?

Posted: 2/19/2014 6:10:51 PM

I agree that the 3-star and above ratings are players that the recruiting services actually looked at and seriously evaluated. The problem is when you get below that. To put this in perspective, this year WMU had a great recruitng class, the highest rated one I have seen in the MAC. Even then, they ranked #69 overall. The 1-star schools were ranked:
Kansas State 49
Syracuse 50
Boston College 52
Iowa State 56
Duke 58
Central Florida 59
Wake Forest 62.
Boise State 67
Temple 71
SMU 78
Memphis 79
Connecticut 105

Thus, WMU would rank at the lower end of the 1-star schools. Ohio has a long way to go to get there. They and the rest of the MAC would be 0-star schools on that ranking system. Most AAC schools are in the 1-star rank, I think. They seem to recruit midway between the MAC (0-star) and the lower AQ levels (2-star).

Last Edited: 2/19/2014 6:17:54 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

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