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Topic: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Topic: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

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cc-cat
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Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 11:06:34 AM

Thought I'd take a look at the question, "Does recruiting class translate to wins." As the chart shows (trying to load it), in some cases, yes, but not necessarily. May be more about coaching and if they can get the most out of who they have: ala Ohio and Northern.

The chart shows, class rank (nationally), class rank (MAC) and then how many wins that class attained in their junior and senior years. Note that the 2010 class has only jr. year wins identified. the last three classes are TBD - but I posted the wins by the team so we can see any trend in wins.

No question it is just a sap shot and there are a number of factors - but it provides some interesting data

Top line overview:

Ohio - Simply win with who they have.
Akron can recruit - but they still suck
Ball State - mediocre recruiting, average teams
BG - recruiting has improved, seeing upswing in wins
Buffalo - Akron without the recruiting
Central - limited correlation between recruiting class and wins, but if it ever connects…watch out
Eastern - Back to back good classes, but history not on their side.
Kent State - poor recruiting, see if last season starts trend
Miami - Two good recruiting classes, maybe they will improve
Northern - Like Ohio, simply win with who they have
Toledo - Recruit well and win, three straight #1 classes. Could be power.
Western - Recruiting has dropped off, so should wins

Last Edited: 2/9/2013 12:14:18 PM by cc-cat

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 12:59:59 PM

'Buffalo - 'kron without the recruiting' That's a classic line.

Our 2013 class is 99th in the nation..and best was 80th over all the lyears listed?! I highly suspect that we will be ranked better than 80th in the nation in all of the coming years for this group.

Those overall rankings clearly expose how off-base the rankings are compared to what actually obtains on the field.

Where's the band?!
WHERE"S THE BAND?!

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mf279801
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 3:37:34 PM

Central appears to have an inverse relationship between class rank and performance

L.C.
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 4:09:56 PM

If you follow the rankings awhile you realize that these services are primarily focused on the top25-40 teams in the country. Once you get below 50, the ratings don't have much meaning. Also, if you figure that just in FBS schools, about 2500 players are signed every year, it is no doubt true that the difference between player #1 and player #5 is much greater than the difference between player #2496 and player #2500. As you get further down the list, it becomes more a matter of building a culture of winning, and of coaching players up.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Casper71
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 4:47:37 PM

L.C., I am beginning to believe you. I still wish we had Toledo's recruits (the quality not necessarily the players) and our staff! Talk about the sky being the limit. And, I thought when we got FS we would be able to do that. Obviously, Athens, Ohio must be a tuff place to get the top players to come to if FS has been unable to do it with our resurgence on the field!

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 5:03:56 PM

71--I think that's one of the disappointments with last season. If we hadn't had that down stretch at the end, if we'd've finished with a few more wins, then another stellar/uptrend season would pay (have paid) off in recruiting (2013 recruits, subsequent years).

We'll get 'me this coming season!

Also, I think that a MAC CHAMPIONSHIP will give recruiting a boost.

Bcat2
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 6:57:28 PM

Casper71 wrote:

L.C., I am beginning to believe you. I still wish we had Toledo's recruits (the quality not necessarily the players) and our staff! Talk about the sky being the limit. And, I thought when we got FS we would be able to do that. Obviously, Athens, Ohio must be a tuff place to get the top players to come to if FS has been unable to do it with our resurgence on the field!

71, I don't understand? You seem to still believe Toledo is getting better recruits just because some amatuer raters have given them some more stars. I prefer to trust the professional ratings of the Ohio staff as they pick who they want to coach for the next four years. Again, rating services = amatuers vs professional evaluations from the paid coaches. You stick with your star givers, I will stick with the coaches.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

L.C.
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 7:57:47 PM

Casper, don't get me wrong - I want better recruits, too - always. I just don't know a good way of measuring them, and I don't see any evidence that the recruiting services have any accuracy.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Casper71
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 9:34:27 PM

I do believe that once you get to three stars there must be some knowledge base. Look at the Top 20 recruiting classes and, as I recall, most of their guys are three stars so there is something there since those tend to be Top 10 teams. I realize four and five star guys are in a whole other universe. The thing i would think is Toledo is treated no differently than us so how is it they get so many more three star guys than us if they are under the same constraints? Guys get more offers? Guys get offers from BCS schools? Just curious?

I think we all agree bigger, faster, stronger players are better to get big, slow and weak ones.

colobobcat66
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 10:07:17 PM

FWIW, the Huntington Herald Dispatch had an article about rating services and All America teams(don't remember the service that they used or which AA team, but in the top 2 teams for offense and defense, everybody was 3 or more stars except 5 2 stars and 1 unranked walk-on from you guessed it Nebraska . So there is some indication from that report that stars matter. I'd like to see how the all-MAC teams look vis-a-vis stars for the past few years to being it down to our level.

Bcat2
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/9/2013 10:53:10 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

The NFL Combine invited three MAC players; Dysert, 3 stars, lots of offers, Fisher, two stars, only one offer, Herman, two stars, about three offers. Fisher and Herman are evidence the trick is seeing what will be vs what is. Great class ratings come from getting the best high school players. Great recruiters find the players who can become the best college players. They are not the same.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

L.C.
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/10/2013 3:59:38 PM

Casper71 wrote:

I do believe that once you get to three stars there must be some knowledge base. ...

I would agree with this.I added up Rivals ratings, and came up with the following:
Total 5-Star Players signed by FBS schools- 34
Total 4-Star Players signed by FBS schools - 319
Total 3-Star Players signed by FBS schools - 1141
Total 2-Star Players signed by FBS schools - 1219

Figure that another 2000 or so 2-star players sign with FCS or smaller schools, and others end up walking on, and there are perhaps 5000 2-star players.If you read the recruiting reports, the services spend a large amount of time writing about those four and five start athletes. The 3-star players get a lot less time apiece, and the 2-star athletes get almost no attention at all.

I would think most players are rated within +/- one star from their real ability. Thus if a player is rated 4-stars, he probably deserves at least 3, and if a player gets 2 stars, he probably doesn't deserve more than 3. That said, there are exceptions this this. Both Travis Carrie and Lavon Brazill probably should have been 4-star players, but were only 2, as they were overlooked.

Putting it another way, what I'm saying is that anyone rated 3-stars and up can probably play, but there is a huge pool of players rated 2-starsand they don't get a lot of attention. Once a player gets dumped into that group, they are largely forgotten by the services. Among that pool there are a handful of players that really deserve 4 stars, and a fairly high number that probably should be 3-star players, and there are also a lot who really should be 1-star players. Thus you could have 2 schools that appear to have similar classes, with all 2-star players, but one might have a lot of s/b 3-stars, while the other might have a bunch of s/b 1-stars. There just isn't enough accuracy when you get down into the lower ratings to make any kind of informed judgement between recruiting class 70 and recruiting class 100, and unfortunately that includes the entire MAC. Note that ESPN is honest about that, and doesn't even give class rankings below 40. CSTV, when they were doing rankings, did the same thing.

In the end, since I don't really think you can put a lot of stock in the rankings below the top 40 what can you use? These are the factors I look at:
1. Did the players have other offers? I would guess that there are so many 2-star players that most of them never get any offers at all. If other schools made offers, that's an indication that at least some other recruiters thought they can play.
2. Did the coaches get the players they wanted? Each year the coaches start out by making about 150 offers. Then, as some of those get accepted, or turned down, they may pull some offers, or issue others. If a kid is included in the first offers, that's a positive sign that the coaches got their first choice, someone they really wanted, and that they aren't "settling" for what's available instead.
3. My own personal observations from watching the film. I don't claim to be a scout, and I am wrong often, no doubt, but hey, at least I know I actually watched the film. Sometimes I think that the services watch a few seconds and push the 2-star button, and go on to the next guy.

By the way, my observation is that even one "positive" indicator for a player is a sign that he has a good future. Thus having 1-2 other offers is a positive indicator. So is having a 3 star rating from any service. Applying those tests to this class, most of the players did have other offers. Some of them did get a 3-star rating from at least one service. Most of them were among the first players chosen. From watching the film, I think that most of them are good players. Therefore I feel comfortable that this will turn out to be a decent class.

Should Ohio raise it's targets, and go after a higher grade of player? Maybe. Yet this was the first year, ever, when they class filled up early. Hopefully it will become an every year thing, and they can gradually continue to raise the targets.

One final comment - I suppose it would be possible for me to watch film of the players other schools have recruited. and to do the same thing for each of them. That would be a huge undertaking, and crazy though I may be, I'm not going to do that. Even Vandelay has stopped doing that, which is a shame - somebody should do it.

Last Edited: 2/11/2013 1:01:01 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Casper71
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/10/2013 11:04:45 PM

L.C. thanks for doing the hard work. This has been educational!

Mike Coleman
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/11/2013 8:49:49 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Which would matter if the All-American teams weren't biased towards successful BCS programs. I think if you look at NFL success among non-BCS schools you'll find more two star types.

L.C.
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/11/2013 12:59:28 PM

Casper71 wrote:

... The thing i would think is Toledo is treated no differently than us so how is it they get so many more three star guys than us if they are under the same constraints? Guys get more offers? Guys get offers from BCS schools? Just curious?...

By the way, I didn't really address this question. The reason is that I really don't know the answer. Obviously it isn't just this year that it happens. If you look at the recruiting rankings from years past, Toledo is very nearly always ranked near the top. They have changed coaching staffs multiple times in the last ten years, and it stays the same - they seem to get more 3-star players. I don't know why. Even with all of the 3-star players, however, they have not been to the MAC Championship game since 2004, interestingly enough.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Bcat2
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/11/2013 2:27:07 PM

L.C. wrote:

Casper71 wrote:

I do believe that once you get to three stars there must be some knowledge base. ...

Overlooked by the services not by Ohio, which is the point that establishes coaches know better than the services and should receive the benefit of the doubt in recruiting matters.

Last Edited: 2/11/2013 4:08:55 PM by Bcat2

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

Jeff McKinney
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/11/2013 3:13:27 PM

L.C. wrote:

Totally agree.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/11/2013 3:31:51 PM

Bcat2--We get it; you think that the coaching staff are gods. It is still possible to disagree with the coaches. And it's possible to be correct in that disagreement. Yes, I think that generally the coaches do a very fine job. It is just annoying to read nothing from you but 'the coaches are right, the coaches are right.' Part of the fun is educated disagreement and suggestions.

L.C.
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RE: Comparing recruiting and wins - now with chart

Posted: 2/11/2013 4:21:56 PM

Bcat2 wrote:

...However, I don't agree that Carrie/Brazil should have been 4-stars out of high school. I say this as these stars are basically a reward for a high school career, at least an attention getting, 3-star, soph/ junior season and a great senior year. Now, if the stars were an indication of what the player will do at the next level, then yes, they should have been 4-stars.

Then I guess we'll have to disagree. You weren't posting here back in those days, so maybe you don't remember the circumstances. The two cases were similar - neither played any football at all until their Senior year. In Brazill's case it was because he didn't put any effort into grades until his Junior year. In Carrie's case it was because of an unusual health condition that was surgically corrected his Junior year. Both players started slowly their Senior season, but by the end of the Senior year were playing at the highest level, and both were MVP's of their state championship or all star games. In Carrie's case, he was the MVP of the California State Championship game. In Brazill's case he was MVP of a Florida all-star game, as I recall. In both cases they earned the honor over 4 and 5-star players playing in the same game. California and Florida are two pretty good football states, you'd have to admit.

The only reason they did not have 4 start ratings at the time was that they had no ratings at all. The ratings services didn't even know either existed until after they had signed with Ohio.Had they looked at Senior film, and actually rated them, both would have been very highly rated. When both were announced I had great confidence that they would have very good careers ahead, and most of us here considered them to be 4-star players at the time.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

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