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Ohio Football Recruiting

Topic: Averge Recruting Class Size

Topic: Averge Recruting Class Size

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L.C.
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Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/23/2013 10:50:35 PM

It seemed to me that Ohio normally has a smaller recruiting class than most schools, which hurts them in the rankings, so I thought I'd see if that's actually true. Using Rivals data, the average number of recruits/year by school using the period 2009-2012 is:

Temple 25.75 (for comparison, since they are the master of churn)
NIU 25.25
CMU 24.75
WMU 24.00
Toledo 23.50
Akron 23.00
U. Mass 23.00 (2012 data only)
BG 22.25
Miami 22.00
Kent 22.00
Ball State 22.00
EMU 22.00
Ohio 20.25
Buffalo 19.75

Why would these be different? If all players stayed an average of 4.5 years, schools would recruit an average of 18.9 players a year, but there are factors which can cause a higher number of letters of intent to be signed:
1. Non qualifiers - Some teams sign extra players, knowing some won't qualify
2. Jucos - Jucos tend to stay 2 years, which bring the average stay down, and the number of offers up
3. Players lost to career ending injury
4. Players leaving the program for other reasons (academic, criminal, homesick)
5. Players pushed out of the program for lack of effort/performance

Conversely, awarding scholarships to walkons tends to lower the number that can be awarded. Ohio has a few players in each of the groups 1-5 above, but not not too many, and they award a lot of scholarships to walkons. The result is that each year they award less scholarships than most schools. That hurts them in the rankings, but in the end it also means they have more upperclassmen on the team, and more continuity than some of the other schools.

I actually thought Ohio would be alone at the bottom, but I see Buffalo is down there with them, and the two are well below the other schools in the MAC.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/23/2013 11:27:58 PM

We're firmly on the right trajectory. Others are groping.

Anyone who's followed us for a few years can see the depth...which is a reflection of recruiting solid student-athletes.

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colobobcat66
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/24/2013 8:29:24 AM

An astute observation as usual LC. Ohio is getting the job done overall with the recruits we're getting so we are doing a lot right. We are also taking chances on guys w/ injuries etc like Tettleton and Carrie which have paid off. Hopefully Chris Carson this year pays off as well.

Last Edited: 1/24/2013 9:07:49 AM by colobobcat66

Casper71
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/24/2013 3:21:38 PM

Observation #2 and just a bit of "devils advocate": NIU and Toledo have been successful and are doing it the "other" way with more offers than Ohio. Doesn't mean that much, I guess, since there really is more than one way to skin a cat. I continue to maintain I'd take those 7-8 three star guys Toledo has, improve them the way Ohio does and end up even better than we have had.

Funny thing is I was looking at the Mock NFL Drafts and there was an O-lineman from CMU projected in the first round. He was a two star guy. So, obviously there are those that mature/develop late out there. I must tell you though, most of the first rounders were 3-4-5 star guys!

Bcat2
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/24/2013 4:16:13 PM

Casper71 wrote:

Casper, recent MAC stars. Eric Page Toledo, Scott Wedige, Chandler Harnish NIU, two stars all. Schools that offer more ships don't honor the scholarship for four years. They run off athletes who don't make the two-deep in order to have more ships to offer. In my mind, that is poor. This is a Solich program that will not have the ships to offer the others have. I prefer coach Solich's way. This is the MAC, check the stars for the All MAC team, it is not were you start, it is were you finish.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

L.C.
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/24/2013 4:25:40 PM

I would also agree that those near the top on average have been more successful than those near the bottom. Temple, NIU, CMU, WMU, and Toledo have all been pretty successful, whereas (excluding Ohio) Buffalo, Kent, EMU, and Miami have been notably less successful, though Kent did have a good year this year. Thus there may be some benefit to churning players - over recruiting, and then losing the ones that don't work out. Ohio's success proves that you don't have to do it that way, though, and I'm proud that Ohio has been able to do it without the churn.

As far as the star ratingss on the best players in the MAC, I think you'll find that most of them have been 2-star players, simply because most MAC players are 2-star players. Historically most of the 3-star players that found their way into the MAC were probably over-rated, and ergo under-recruited by BCS schools, whereas there are always players that get under-rated, or not noticed by the BCS schools, guys like Brazill, or Dri Archer, both of whom were rated 2 stars, 4.9 by Rivals.

I see that changing, however. You see more and more 3-star players choosing specifically playing in the MAC, and opting for the MAC even though they have BCS offers. That's true not only at Ohio, but at other MAC schools, too, and I think it's a direct result of all the exposure on ESPN. Current Bobcats that also had BCS offers include Lechner, Hughes, Sam Johnson, Russell, Landon Smith, Crutcher, Welter, McQueen, Haser, Gibbons, Sebastian Smith, Schany, Windham, Tanner, and William Johnson. I think you'd agree that most of those are pretty good players. Among recruits this year that have them you have Carson, Wyatt, and Quallen. To me the number and quality of schools that offer is probably a better indicator that we have a good player as the number of stars.

By the way, Casper - here's a rating you'll like (not that any of them matter all that much). Here's the 247Sports ranking of the MAC, using their own ratings. When you start, Ohio is in 8th due to the low number of recruits they show, but sort the teams by the average rating per player, and now, with Carson added, Ohio is #1 in the MAC. Their average of 78.91 would also put them at the top of SBC, or the middle of CUSA or MWC.

Last Edited: 1/24/2013 4:44:31 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Casper71
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/25/2013 3:47:00 PM

LC, the other interesting thing is just how close almost all of the MAC schools are in the overall ranking. Just adds fuel to the fact that most MAC schools are after the same guys OR same level guys. It really is a coaches league because it is very difficult to separate yourself talent wise.

L.C.
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/25/2013 4:52:40 PM

Very interesting. With Carson committing to Ohio, 247Sports lowers his rating from 87 to 83. That's something you all used to claim was common, but which has never happened before since I've been here. 247Sports just went down a big notch in my eyes.

I agree with your last post, Casper - it is a coaches league. Using those 247 ratings, the differences between the top and bottom team are more like 10 points in most leagues, only 4 in the MAC. Recruiting is still important, but much more difficult to measure, since the traditional measures don't measure it. One way you win is to uncover hidden gems, unrated by the services, who actually do have talent. Equally important is avoiding ending up with a bunch of 2-star players who never contribute. This is something Ohio has done very well over the last 5 years. There have been some players that they recruited that never contributed, but many of those have been due to injury, not lack of ability. One of the downfalls of Knorr was that while he recruited some very good players, he also recruited a substantial number that never ended up contributing, with the result that there was a lack of depth. Most of the Solich recruits have had sufficient talent that even if they didn't start, or star, they still were able to contribute to depth.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

colobobcat66
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/25/2013 7:26:05 PM

L.C. wrote:

How about his ranking changing because of his knee surgery and missing games? I'm guessing they caught up to these facts, not the fact he verballed to Ohio. But who knows.

L.C.
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/25/2013 8:27:21 PM

That's possible. I wasn't aware he was injured. I tied to look into it, and found this article, showing he had a concussion, and a leg bruise, and this one, that says he was out for the remainder of the season. I couldn't find anything about a surgery, though. I hope it was minor, and that he makes a complete recovery.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

colobobcat66
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/25/2013 8:47:49 PM

L.C. wrote:

it was in the WOUB interview that was listed on this site yesterday or the day before. The surgery was a MCL I believe.

Doc Bobcat
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/25/2013 9:35:54 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

L.C. wrote:

How about his ranking changing because of his knee surgery and missing games? I'm guessing they caught up to these facts, not the fact he verballed to Ohio. But who knows.

I doubt it....since sport247 gives all OUr recruits a 5.4 and I doubt if they've watched one frame of video.

This kind of stuff sorta ticks me off.....but unless a rating is a 4 or 5 star it's almost meaningless....and even then we'll have 2 star players that should be 3 and 3 star players that should be 4.

C Money
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RE: Averge Recruting Class Size

Posted: 1/25/2013 10:53:47 PM

Class size, schmass size. Rating, schmating. Let's just win the damn MAC Championship this year.

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