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Ohio Football Recruiting

Topic: The Currency of Signing Day

Topic: The Currency of Signing Day

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Mike Johnson
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Member Since: 11/11/2004
Location: North Canton, OH
Post Count: 1,719

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The Currency of Signing Day

Posted: 2/2/2012 12:15:56 AM

That's the headline on a fun story in today's Wall Street Journal. Page D6.

Subhed: As colleges labor to land five-star recruits, we ask: Do those ratings mean anything?

The Journal collected the Rivals ratings for recruiting classes between 2004 and 2006. "Since the players in those classes have almost entirely come and gone, it is possible to get a sense of whether their projections panned out."

Some findings:
* 46% of the 5-star Rivals players over those three seasons were drafted by the NFL.
* 19% of the 4-star players were drafted.
* 9% of the 3-star players were drafted.

Accompanying the story are action photos of 4 standout college players:
* Oklahoma's RB Adrian Peterson was a 5-star.
* Pitt's DB Deryl Revis was a 3-star.
* Georgia Tech's WR Calvin Johnson was a 4-star.
* Oklahoma State's TE Brandon Pettigrew was a 2-star.

Story's closing paragraph: Yet one thing is undisputed: Scouting will always be more art than science. "There is no such thing as an expert," said Scott Kennedy, director of scouting for Scout, "just varying degrees of wrong."

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L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,274

Status: Offline

RE: The Currency of Signing Day

Posted: 2/2/2012 12:45:32 AM

What your data doesn't address is the massive heap of 2-star recruits. I have little doubt that 4-5 star recruits are identifiably better than 2-3 star recruits, but in the huge pool of 2-star recruits you could easily have one team taking dregs while another is taking the cream.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Mike Johnson
General User

Member Since: 11/11/2004
Location: North Canton, OH
Post Count: 1,719

Status: Offline

Followup WSJ story

Posted: 2/2/2012 10:19:12 AM

Today's Wall Street Journal - page D5 - includes a recruiting followup story headlined: That two-star might become an all-star.

This paragraph provides the context: There are typically only around 30 five-star prospects each year and 300 to 400 four-star ones, compared to 1,000-plus three-stars and at least as many lesser ones. In other words, the top recruits face a ton of competition.

The story also reports that, over the last five years, 69% of NFL draftees received a three-star rating or lower. It then cites standout NFL first-round draftees J.J. Watt (pictured) from Wisconsin and Anthony Costanzo from Boston College who were two-stars.

Most interesting is a detailed chart that aggregates all players drafted by the NFL in the 1st thru 7th rounds since 2007. In 1st rounds, 17.6% of draftees were five-stars and nearly as many, 16.4%, were two-stars.

This paragraph could prove heartening too many lower-starred recruits: So even though lower-rated recruits got little attention Wednesday, chances are many of them will go on to great careers.

In thinking about Ohio's on-the-field success in recent seasons, it tends to underscore the likelihood that Coach Solich and his staff achieve more with the talent available than most other coaching staffs.

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